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YokoZar | 22 days ago

> * it’s a safe bet that labor will have lower value in 2031 than it has today

If AI makes workers more productive, labor will have higher value than it has today. Which specific workers are winning in that scenario may vary tremendously, of course, but I don't think anyone is seriously claiming AI will make everyone less productive.

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keybored|22 days ago

> If AI makes workers more productive, labor will have higher value than it has today.

Workers being more productive does not necessarily translate to workers getting more leverage or a larger piece of the pie.

z2|22 days ago

The value of labor i.e. wages depend on labor demand (the marginal product of labor) and bargaining power, not output per worker. If AI is a substitute for many tasks, the marginal value of an additional worker, and what a company is willing to pay for their work can fall even if each remaining worker is more productive.

YokoZar|22 days ago

What you're forecasting is a scenario where total output has substantially increased but no one's hiring or able to start their own business. Instant massive recession is by no means a "sure bet" with technological improvements, especially those that make more kinds of work possible than before.

johnvanommen|21 days ago

That’s a perfect summary of what I was getting at, thank you