[gignico]

Exactly. This flawed argument by which everything will be fixed by future models drives me crazy every time.

[bopbopbop7]

Just a couple more trillion and 6 more months!

[simianwords]

That’s been the trend for a while. Can you make a prediction that says something concretely like “AI will not be able to do X by 2028” for a specific and well defined X?

[xigoi]

In 2030, an AI model that I can run on my computer, without having to trust an evil megacorporation, will not be able to write a compiler for my markup language [0] based on a corpus of examples, without seeing the original implementation, using no more than 1.5× as much code as I did.

https://git.sr.ht/~xigoi/hilda

[direwolf20]

Were any made about 2025?

[Kiro]

So far it has been accurate though. Models have gotten much better than even the most optimistic predictions.

[LinXitoW]

No? The most optimistic predictions involved AGI around the corner, 6 months until no more developers for years now.

[rsynnott]

... Eh? A few years back, the usual suspects were predicting AGI by, usually, either 2026 or 2027. Think that's gonna happen?

(Such predictions have been quietly forgotten or revised forward, in general.)