[ubixar]

The most interesting finding isn't that hyperbolic growth appears in "emergent capabilities" papers - it's that actual capability metrics (MMLU, tokens/$) remain stubbornly linear.

The singularity isn't in the machines. It's in human attention.

This is Kuhnian paradigm shift at digital speed. The papers aren't documenting new capabilities - they're documenting a community's gestalt switch. Once enough people believe the curve has bent, funding, talent, and compute follow. The belief becomes self-fulfilling.

Linear capability growth is the reality. Hyperbolic attention growth is the story.

[FeepingCreature]

Though this is still compatible with exponential or at least superlinear capability growth if you model benchmarks as measuring a segment of the line, or a polynomial factor.