[fabian2k]

There is a circular restriction around the airport and a trapezoid one next to the city (https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-order-s...).

What are the plausible explanations here? I can't think of anything except military action against Mexico (or the cartels inside Mexico). But even that doesn't fit well.

A suspected terror attack could explain the airspace around the airport, but not the weird trapezoid restriction next to the city.

The duration of 10 days is also weird, that seems very long for any kind of emergency situation. And as far as I understand, it is unusual to have no exceptions at all here e.g. for medical transports via helicopter.

[viraptor]

The not-totally-crazy ideas from Reddit include:

- it's related to the annouced GPS disruption test (although that's a really long time and doesn't seem urgent enough)

- someone in Mexico is getting kidnapped by Gov

- nuclear tests

I wish those were crazy ideas, but here we are...

[throw0101a]

> - it's related to the annouced GPS disruption test (although that's a really long time and doesn't seem urgent enough)

Those are done regularly without TFRs. See recent example in Texas:

* https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-area-...

A link to a list of notices at:

* https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/gps-service-interruptions

[bdbdbdb]

I don't know which Reddit thread you're reading (there are many I'm sure) but the one in r/Aviation seems to have a favourite theory that there was a credible threat of someone with MANPADS, which are shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles and not some sort of sanitary product.

Apparently they have a ceiling of 18,000ft which is exactly the limit of the restriction in El Paso. Aircraft are allowed fly over if they go above that

[RupertSalt]

> GPS disruption

Ah, a very plausible explanation!

https://avbrief.com/overnight-gps-testing-affects-huge-area-...

The map indicates it will be centered on Lampasas and the region of effect seems to be east of El Paso. So, if the GPS exercises are the cause, the TFRs would've been more likely to bring in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio.

Isn't it possible that a 10-day TFR could be lifted early once the concern is past? They've probably made it 10 days just to establish an upper bound.

[mothballed]

Most plausible comment I found on the internet was the government lost something in that trapezoid and doesn't want anyone to fly over it and find it until it's collected.

[RupertSalt]

Ah, so an alien's contact lens

[thebruce87m]

Broken Arrow?

[morkalork]

Quick, someone call Skinner and get Mulder and Scully on the case!

[elictronic]

Probably laser shootdown of drug carrying drones.

[tootie]

I honestly assume it's something petty. Like an El Paso air traffic controller was rude to a deportation flight pilot.

[superb_dev]

Another interesting note, the trapezoidal TFR is still in place

[jmclnx]

Nice, I would have fed it through rot13 first, giving:

4775722052636667727661205376797266

[vincnetas]

its hex ascii for : "The Epstein Files"

[fabian2k]

I don't think you need a NOTAM for that, you could just close the airport directly. And so far this administration hasn't shown itself to be particularly concerned about preventing the spread of infectious diseases like measles.

[viraptor]

Without cutting off the roads first? That wouldn't make much sense, right?

[alex43578]

Well, this wins for silliest non-alien theory, with bonus points for the hyperbole of “concentration camp” to describe illegal immigrant detention.

[nateburke]

My guess is nuclear test.

Airport circle to secure the transport of the device to the ground adjacent to the test site.

Trapezoid is the test site, wider on the side that is less controllable (border-facing).

Disconnected because two separate teams executed in parallel without informed oversight.

[kakacik]

While Mexican side has no restrictions - that would be supremely dumb even for a primary school level of thinking. Tons of civilians dead with clear reason who caused it, completely preventable.

Fantasy often likes extreme options but most probably saner reason like expected strike on cartels and their retaliation is whats happening.

[estearum]

... I don't think they're detonating a nuclear weapon in a National Monument 50 miles from a large US city...

There are plenty of better places for them to do this.