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Night_Thastus | 18 days ago

No, they don't. That's the UN prediction, because they assume that somehow, magically, all countries below replacement will simultaneously, near-instantly increase in fertility rate by huge amounts over the next couple of years. Look at the graphs, they're nonsensical.

If you look at the actual trends of those rates, peak population is ~2050, maybe sooner.

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slaw|18 days ago

> near-instantly increase in fertility rate by huge amounts over the next couple of years

Nothing like this on Wikipedia. Do you have a better link?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_projections

Night_Thastus|10 days ago

That's the population project, not the fertility projection - which means it will appear smooth. However, I can no longer find the original data I was looking at, so I can't back myself up either.