[Tenoke]

Nobody out of people remotely worth listening to. There's always people deeply wrong about things but over 70 years at this point is a pretty insane position unless you have a great reason like expecting Taiwan to get bombed tomorrow and slow down progress.

[cosmic_cheese]

Probabilities have increased, but it's still not a certainty. It may turn out that stumbling across LLMs as a mimicry of human intelligence was a fluke and the confluence of remaining discoveries and advancements required to produce real AGI won't fall into place for many, many years to come, especially if some major event (catastrophic world war, systematic environmental collapse, etc) occurs and brings the engine of technological progress to a crawl for 3-5 decades.

[HDThoreaun]

"100% of AI researchers think we will have AGI this century" isnt the same as "100% of AI researchers think theres a 100% chance that we will have AGI this century"

[ryandvm]

I think the only people that don't think we're going to see AGI within the next 70 years are people that believe consciousness involves "magic". That is, some sort of mystical or quantum component that is, by definition, out of our reach.

The rest of us believe that the human brain is pretty much just a meat computer that differs from lower life forms mostly quantitatively. If that's the case, then there really isn't much reason to believe we can't do exactly what nature did and just keep scaling shit up until it's smart.

[cosmic_cheese]

I don't think there's "magic" exactly, but I do believe that there's a high chance that the missing elements will be found in places that are non-intuitive and beyond the scope of current research focus.

The reason is because this has generally been how major discoveries have worked. Science and technology as a whole advances more rapidly when both R&D funding is higher across the board and funding profiles are less spiky and more even. Diminishing returns accumulate pretty quickly with intense focus.

[shahzbha]

Sufficiently advanced science is no different than magic. Religion could be directionally correct, if off on the specifics.

I think there’s a good bit of hubris in assuming we even have the capacity to understand everything. Not to say we can’t achieve AGI, but we’re listening to a salesman tell us what the future holds.

[phainopepla2]

I'm not sure why you would characterize the possibility that consciousness relies on quantum mechanics to be "magic". Quantum mechanics are very real.