[deet]

Just keep in mind that there are many highly motivated people directly working on this problem.

It's hard to predict how quickly it will be solved and by whom first, but this appears to be a software engineering problem solvable through effort and resources and time, not a fundamental physical law that must be circumvented like a physical sciences problem. Betting it won't be solved enough to have an impact on the work of today relatively quickly is betting against substantial resources and investment.

[slopinthebag]

Why do you think it's not a physical sciences problem? It could be the case that current technologies simply cannot scale due to fundamental physical issues. It could even be a fundamental rule of intelligent life, that one cannot create intelligence that surpasses its own.

Plenty of things get substantial resources and investment and go nowhere.

Of course I could be totally wrong and it's solved in the next couple years, it's almost impossible to make these predictions either way. But I get the feeling people are underestimating what it takes to be truly intelligent, especially when efficiency is important.

[jatari]

>It could even be a fundamental rule of intelligent life, that one cannot create intelligence that surpasses its own.

Well that is easily disproved by the fact that people have children with higher IQ's than their own.

[ThrowawayR2]

Many highly motivated people with substantial resources and investment have worked on a lot of things and then failed at them with nothing to show for it.

[datsci_est_2015]

The implication of your assertion is pretty much a digital singularity. You’re implying that there will be no need for humans to interact with the digital world at all, because any work in the digital world will be achievable by AI.

Wonder what that means for meatspace.

Edit: Would also disagree this isn’t a physics problem. Pretty sure power required scales according to problem complexity. At a certain level of problem complexity we’re pretty much required to put enough carbon in the atmosphere to cook everyone to a crisp.

Edit 2: illustrative example, an Epic in Jira: “Design fusion reactor”