[svara]

You're right, and I enjoy using coding agents too. I've built some things with them I wouldn't have otherwise.

However, it's been a full quarter now since November 2025.

Based on facts on the ground, i.e. the rate and quality of new software and features we observe, change has been nowhere as dramatic as your comment would suggest.

It seems to me that a possible explanation is that people get very excited about massive speedups in specific tasks, but the bottleneck of the system shifts somewhere else immediately (e.g, human capacity for learning, team coordination costs, communication delays).

[simonw]

That "full quarter" included the Christmas holidays for many people, during which not a lot of work gets done.

I think it's a bit early to expect to see huge visible output from these new tools. A lot of people are still spinning up on them - learning to use a coding agent effectively takes months.

And for people who are spun up, there's a lot more to shipping new features and products that writing the code. I expect we'll start to see companies ship features to customers that benefited from Opus 4.5/4.6 and Codex 5.2/5.3 over the next few months, but I'm not surprised there hasn't been a huge swell in stuff-that-shipped in just the ~10 weeks since those models become available.

There is one notable example that's captured the zeitgeist: https://github.com/openclaw/openclaw had its first commit on November 25th 2025, 3 months later it's had more than 10,000 commits from 600 contributors, attracted 196,000 stars and (kind-of) been featured in a Superbowl commercial (apparently that's what the AI.com thing was, if anyone could get the page to load - https://x.com/kris/status/2020663711015514399 )