My job wants us to plan sprints 12 weeks in advance. That includes decomposing epics into stories with full descriptions and acceptance criteria, which anyone who's actually worked on an agile team knows is a complete waste of time. By the time imyou get 6 weeks in things will have changed too much.
By far the most useful thing AI had done for me is let me plow through all that in a fraction of the time I would have before. They're spending a ton of money to make employees more efficient at the pointless bullshit they themselves put in our way.
And before some scrum master shows up and tells me how important stories are, I'm not arguing against planning. I am arguing against pointlessly over planning to make a bunch of suits happy when teams aren't given the kind of time to actually plan that far in advance.
I've tried explaining this to people till I'm blue in the face. It's simply unreasonable to plan specific tickets out that far. We simply don't know what we don't know. And that assumes business priorities will not change and the project requirements will not change (two things that almost always happen). Additionally, the mindset that we can embark on a multi-week/month project and stop/start it at a whim.
This is why I always champion technical leadership. Many, many people seem to think this is unnecessary, but I think it's common sense. The layman might see building software like building a house. We know basically all the components of the house, we know we need to lay the foundation before raising walls and installing a roof. Software development is nothing like this. You can add a roof before the walls, you can dig an entire basement before providing any method of descending into it from the ground floor.
There’s all these non-coding elements to a developer’s job that make me think AI replacing developers will take a lot longer than everyone thinks.
What portion of a job must be done by AI before the human loses their job? 80%? Even 98% (and we’re nowhere near that) will produce a ton of friction when applied to a team of developers.
The problem is that the narrative of imminent job displacement is the prevailing one and becomes self fulfilling.
We don't know if it will take the form of a net drop in headcount at all, or if white collar labor will be broadly replaced with the same headcount of low paid fungible AI operators.
But we can say that mass displacement of labor in one form or another is the goal because it's the only way to explain the amount of investment that's going into it.
My hot take is that as that percentage increases, salaries will go up asymptotically, until you get to 100%, then they crash to 0. If 80% of your job can be done by AI, I'm going to give you the work of 5 people. When is 99%, I will give you the work of 100 people
scuff3d|13 days ago
By far the most useful thing AI had done for me is let me plow through all that in a fraction of the time I would have before. They're spending a ton of money to make employees more efficient at the pointless bullshit they themselves put in our way.
And before some scrum master shows up and tells me how important stories are, I'm not arguing against planning. I am arguing against pointlessly over planning to make a bunch of suits happy when teams aren't given the kind of time to actually plan that far in advance.
joshstrange|12 days ago
lunias|12 days ago
thewhitetulip|12 days ago
viraptor|13 days ago
JSR_FDED|13 days ago
What portion of a job must be done by AI before the human loses their job? 80%? Even 98% (and we’re nowhere near that) will produce a ton of friction when applied to a team of developers.
The problem is that the narrative of imminent job displacement is the prevailing one and becomes self fulfilling.
add-sub-mul-div|13 days ago
But we can say that mass displacement of labor in one form or another is the goal because it's the only way to explain the amount of investment that's going into it.
sputknick|13 days ago
throwjjj|13 days ago
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selridge|12 days ago
hn92726819|12 days ago
aurareturn|12 days ago
nubg|13 days ago
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jazzpush2|13 days ago