[aadarshkumaredu]

I think the “AI bubble burst” framing is too simplistic. Bubbles don’t erase technology. They erase mispriced capital.

In 2000, internet stocks collapsed. The internet didn’t. What disappeared were business models built on fantasy unit economics. The same distinction matters here.

If AI funding compresses, here’s what likely happens:

• Speculative AI wrappers die fast • Subsidized API pricing rises toward real compute cost • Consolidation around a few model and infrastructure providers • Enterprises shift from experimentation to strict ROI enforcement

Right now a lot of AI usage is artificially cheap. Growth is being prioritized over margin. If that flips, casual usage drops. That doesn’t mean the tools disappear. It means only usage that creates measurable value survives.

If a tool suddenly costs $1,000 per month, most hobbyists won’t pay. But that’s irrelevant. The real question is whether it replaces or amplifies enough labor to justify the price.

If it saves a team $8,000 to $20,000 in monthly productivity or headcount cost, it survives. If it’s just a nice-to-have, it dies.

The bigger risk isn’t foundation models disappearing. It’s the application layer collapsing. A lot of AI startups exist purely because inference is subsidized. If API pricing normalizes, many evaporate overnight.

A post-bubble AI world probably looks less magical and less overfunded, but more disciplined. Fewer demos. More boring enterprise contracts. More focus on margins.

The internet after 2000 didn’t disappear. It matured and consolidated into utilities. AI likely follows the same path.

The real question isn’t whether AI vanishes. It’s who was relying on subsidies instead of economics.

[throwaw12]

If possible I would love to have another button in HN: "Probably AI Slop"

when collected enough points, eventually punishes the authors and every comment they write will be labeled as "AI Slop"

[rkomorn]

I'm all for it if it'll stop people from commenting about things being AI slop or vibecoded and comes with a new guideline discouraging said comments.

[doomslayer999]

You really can’t even write a comment without relying on ai slop?

[aadarshkumaredu]

Fair point. I do rely on AI to help me organize thoughts sometimes, but the analysis isn’t generated blindly. Every point here reflects tradeoffs I’ve seen in real systems and historical patterns.

The real question isn’t whether AI helped write this. It’s whether the reasoning makes sense and matches what happens when capital and infrastructure collide.