top | item 47047994

(no title)

QuadmasterXLII | 12 days ago

This take seems to require that models stop getting better at some capability level a little above where they are now. Is this a future event that you are very confident of?

discuss

order

0xy|12 days ago

AGI is mathematically impossible given our current electrical infrastructure constraints and basic laws, so yes it is.

We're already seeing a dramatic slowdown in relative improvements.

The gap between Sonnet 3.5 (June 2024) and Opus 4.6 (Feb 2026) is large, but it's not 1,000x. Not even 100x.

QuadmasterXLII|12 days ago

Well, I hope you're right. Good luck to us all.