[yellow_lead]

> Brynjolfsson analyzed millions of ADP payroll records and found a 13% relative decline in employment for early-career workers (ages 22-25) in AI-exposed occupations since late 2022.

> So what’s the mechanism at play? AI replaces codified knowledge

Many job postings peaked in 2022 due to the pandemic. The original paper tries to account for this but falls short in my opinion.

Original paper said[1]:

> One possibility is that our results are explained by a general slowdown in technology hiring from 2022 to 2023 as firms recovered from the COVID-19 Pandemic...

> Figure A12 shows employment changes by age and exposure quintile after excluding computer occupations...

> Figure A13 shows results when excluding firms in information technology or computer systems design...

> ... These results indicate that our findings are not specific to technology roles.

Excluding computer and IT jobs is not enough in my opinion. Look at all these other occupations which had peak hiring in 2022.

Nursing jobs in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPNURS

Sales jobs in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSALE

Scientific research & development jobs in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSCREDE

Baking & finance jobs in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPBAFI

[1] https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/app/uploads/2025/12/Cana...