[scruple]

In the end it's a distinction without a difference. The result is the same, and Thiel was building the fire escape before anyone could smell smoke.

[epistasis]

I don't think you can credit Thiel with smelling smoke, he lit the fire. He heard the same statements from SVB leadership about the problems with T-bills and higher fed rates, realized that there was a huge spread between current market value and long market value of SVBs T-bills, and threw a match on it.