[concats]

True! (value - cost) would be better.

I was more so limiting myself to the simpler heuristic where people only pay roughly what they personally think something is worth, and not significantly more/less regardless of the options. But of course, as you've pointed out, in real life the options available really do matter, and someone might decline a 200:1200 trade if there are even more lopsided options available. It does complicate the though experiment somewhat if you try to take this into account.