[femiagbabiaka]

automation makes every job scalable, no?

[pphysch]

Even if it does, there will probably be a prolonged economic period where robots are doing dangerous/messy stuff like welding, plumbing but there is a human master guiding them from a few yards away, via prompts, controllers, etc. More of a semi-autonomous power tool than an fully autonomous master that is delivered by drone on-demand. Scalability is still a ways off.

[scoofy]

If we get AGI and fully autonomous robot assistants, we'll live in a post scarcity world like Star Trek, or somebody in control the robots will use them to enslave all of humanity... so... high variance outcome could go either way.

[insane_dreamer]

given the history of humanity, the post-scarcity world of Star Trek seems highly unlikely

[UltraSane]

That is the ultimate goal. We are very far from it for many jobs.

[layer8]

Do you expect we’ll have AGA, artificial general automation?

[femiagbabiaka]

I don't think it needs to be general to be scalable to the point that it causes previously safe industries to "race to the bottom"

Uber didn't need to launch in every neighborhood to start destroying the taxi business

Facebook didn't need to have every eyeball on the internet in order to massively disrupt trad advertising

At some point there's just a tipping point

[lukan]

I do. But it will take some time to get there.

[jimbokun]

I don’t see anything stopping that from happening in the very near future.

[kardashev8]

could you automate a BJJ coach?

[handzhiev]

Who's going to pay for a BJJ coach when nearly everyone is out of job?

[femiagbabiaka]

IMO literally automating the job isn't the only possible scenario -- already in the weightlifting space coaches are supplying skills and system prompts to llms that do their training for them, massively raising the number of students they can train at at time -- at some point that turns training into a zero sum game

[AntiDyatlov]

I mean, if AI doesn't stall out, maybe there will be BJJ bots in 10 years.

[pier25]

can you automate a tailor?

[Epa095]

Isn't tailors by and large already outcompeted by cheap new clothes?

[ansgri]

Absolutely. Design parametric families of patterns, 3d-scan the person, let customer adjust with live preview, laser cut, then fully automated or low-skill assembly. Probably not currently economical like many things involving physical world manipulation, but without obvious roadblocks.

[insane_dreamer]

yes but is there enough demand for tailoring that it would make it economically feasibly to create the investment to automate it? probably not.

and in a world where many/most(?) people have lost their jobs to AI, only the wealthy few will be able to afford tailoring anyway