[democracy]

>> industry being unable to scale LLMs past their current point

100% bet - no way any "AI" will be able to generate you anything close to a complex piece of software like Ms Word within reasonable time and budget. Given infinite time and money - sure, anything is possible, just like a trilling monkeys randomly printing "War and Peace" once in a trillion years in some remote galaxy. I don't even understand your confidence given how much guidance and hand holding LLMs need at the moment to produce anything useful.

[avmich]

Looks like a failure of imagination?

There are clearly two camps - one points to existing deficiencies, another - to trends, and getting wildly different predictions.

[josephg]

Yep. Claude today? No way can it achieve this. It can barely write a working C compiler.

I'm looking at the trend line. A few years ago it couldn't make a simple webpage. Now it can make a bad C compiler in thousands of dollars of tokens. What does it look like in another few years? Or another 2 decades?