[aerhardt]

Dario admitted in the same interview that he's not sure whether current AI techniques will be able to perform well in non-verifiable domains, like "writing a novel or planning an expedition to Mars".

I personally think that a lot jobs in the economy deal in non-verifiable or hard-to-verify outcomes, including a lot of tasks in SWE which Dario is so confident will be 100% automated in 2-3 years. So either a lot of tasks in the economy turn out to be verifiable, or the AI somehow generalizes to those by some unknown mechanism, or it turns out that it doesn't matter that we abandon abstract work outcomes to vibes, or we have a non-sequitur in our hands.

Dwarkesh pressed Dario well on a lot of issues and left him stumbling. A lot of the leaps necessary for his immediate and now proverbial milestone of a "country of geniuses in a datacenter" were wishy-washy to say the least.

[georgeven]

he was not sure, but if i recall correctly, he put the probability at something like 90 percent of being able to do non verifiable tasks.

[greazy]

How the hell does someone come up with a probability like this? It's such bullshit, a telltale sign is the whole numbers used.

It's not based on anything but gut feeling, which is fine. Just state so.