[throwaway0123_5]

> because other individuals, organizations and nation states are not going to stop, and not going to leverage their AI if they get ahead of us.

I don't think that it is likely AT ALL, but it is probably only necessary for China and the US to agree to stop, not all organizations and nation states. It is at least possible given leadership in both countries that see AI as an existential threat.

The hardware needed to run and train SOTA AI can only be made by a very small handful of companies in a small handful of countries that either the US or China have significant influence over. Making AI R&D illegal would stop 99% of it overnight, most of the researchers are in it for money rather than some ideological commitment and there are plenty of other well-paid jobs they could take. Doing local inference in secret with existing models and GPUs would be possible, but training new SOTA models probably wouldn't be.