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bergen | 9 days ago

If they make single market predictions with high accuracy it is very very likely they are

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genidoi|8 days ago

No vigilant insider is making a series of "single market predictions with high accuracy" on the same account. They would make unlinkable bets on fresh accounts.

BoxFour|8 days ago

> No vigilant insider is making a series of "single market predictions with high accuracy" on the same account.

There seem to be quite a few non-vigilant insiders. That's the very premise of the post we're discussing.

This is unsurprising to anyone who's seen the various ways people get busted for insider trading in equities.

meetingthrower|8 days ago

Also insider trading is A-OK on prediction markets!