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ForHackernews | 8 days ago

I assume it's economically catastrophic to cut off the supply of young, low-wage labour and that's why no responsible government will ever do it.

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jgb1984|8 days ago

Numbers from Denmark and the Netherlands (the only two European countries where it's allowed to gather such statistics) show that non-EU immigration is a net cost to the society (and economy). In the Netherlands a non-western asylumseeker comes to about 800.000 € to 1.300.000 € net cost to the state over the persons lifetime, depending on what you take into account. And that's purely the financial part, we're not even talking about the increase in crime and the ghettoisation of most western European cities. It's a tragedy, for everyone involved (because most 2nd and 3rd generation non-western immigrants still live a life of poverty in Belgium/Netherlands).

blfr|8 days ago

This would be a good explanation but most of these immigrants, especially from outside the EU, are not net contributors.

vide https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-e...

from https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/12/18/why-have-danes-t...

And I highly doubt other governments don't have similar calculations or aren't aware of them.

jorvi|8 days ago

That Economist stat often gets misunderstood. It is "net contribution to public finances" (= how much taxes do they pay), not "net contribution to the economy". This is because they are overly represented in low wage jobs, or indeed on longterm welfare. People in the lowest tax brackets pay very little of it.

I do agree that there needs to be a honest conversation about what (economic) immigrants offer vs. what they cost, but it needs to be done properly.

We will need immigrants because we are below 2.1 in Total Fertility Rate. But, the EU doesn't need to be the comfy life raft of the world as it has been for the past 2-3 decades.

ForHackernews|8 days ago

...but Brits voted against EU immigrants.

canadiantim|8 days ago

That’s funny in light of one of our Canadian governments (Alberta) recently calling for a referendum on immigration levels, with the government claiming immigration levels are too high to support the housing, economic and social needs of the sheer quantity of people coming in. Seems like the government is trying to be responsible by making sure the social welfare system can still support people as it was designed

breakyerself|8 days ago

Bingo. Just like wanting to leave the EU was self destructive cutting off immigration is as well. The US is in the process of trying to hobble its own economy right now.

kjksf|8 days ago

Poland has almost zero immigration and is one of the fastest European economies.

Do explain the miracle of Poland. What kind of economics work for Poland but couldn't possibly work for England.

Do explain how 41 thousand unskilled young man landing in UK shores via small boats are good for economy. Majority of them do no work, not even the low skill jobs. They cost UK citizens a lot of money because UK gov took upon themselves to pay for their housing and food.

The same stats are in every country that allowed massive immigration: the immigrants are a massive drain on resources of the country. And those resources are 100% come from taxing labor of citizens.

Currently UK pays for housing 100 thousand immigrants.

It's pretty obvious that if they stopped paying for housing them, they would save a lot of money.

Properly managed immigration could, in theory, be a net positive for countries.

But as it stands now if you combine immigration with well fare, you get a net drain.

anonymars|8 days ago

The image I have in both cases is the working class shooting itself in the stomach to hit the elites standing behind them

tirant|8 days ago

If that’s indeed the case, how do you explain the lack of catastrophe in Japans economy ?

Japans big catastrophe happened in 1990 with the bubble bursting, but that was years before the peak in working age population. Since then, the economy has not improved much but also has remained somehow stable.

Larrikin|8 days ago

All the jobs in Japan are hard work and low wage. If you're relatively poor and moving from south east Asia, it may make sense to immigrate to Japan. If you're a developer you typically will make half or less than half the salary, for longer hours on some old stack.

When discussing where to live my wife realized that she would potentially triple her salary as a nurse with 10+ years of experience.

Tourists like Japan because it is clean, safe and relatively cheap, but given the option it really does not make sense to work there.