[zaptheimpaler]

Look at the massive and growing wealth & power inequality today, an age of aristocrats, then look at these AI fucks bragging about how AI will eliminate all white collar jobs. Obviously all of the gains are going to go to capital. You can already see LLMs are making programmers much more productive but it's actually causing lower salaries and job losses - so who's capturing the value of that increased productivity? Not workers..

Meanwhile US government is overtly corrupt, criminal morons, they certainly don't care or have any sort of plan to distribute the gains from this technology evenly. Scott Bessent is saying with a smirk on his face that the tariff refunds will not go to consumers [1]. These people actively hate you and laugh at your powerlessness. Hating AI is the right response because the current political system ensures 10% of the benefits will accrue to most people and 90% to the elites, the power imbalance gets even more extreme and it will lead to techno-feudalism (as it has in the past).

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bessent-says-tariff-refund-ul...

[jopsen]

> Obviously all of the gains are going to go to capital.

Right now sota models requires a lot of iron.

It's possible that this will always be the case. But its is not a certainty!

We've seen software improvements shave orders of magnitude of compute requirements before. This could totally happen here. Iron could easily become stranded assets.

But that said, models have already become commodities, well somewhat. Is the value in running inference or applying it?

Today, we dare not use vibe coded libraries for mission critical things, HTML sanitization as an example.

But one day, who is to say the industry won't be disrupted by a vibe coded database with ~100% Oracle compatibility? Made by a nerd in a garage.

Established code bases is a moat today. It might not be in 5 years. Big tech won't be well positioned to take advantage, because trusting vibe coded crap is risky.

My point is mostly: the future is uncertain. Big established software companies might see their moat challenged by nerd in a garage running LLMs in the cloud.

What about the Adobe suite? AutoCAD? Office, etc. (To be fair, it's possible that software never was the moat).

[zdragnar]

> To be fair, it's possible that software never was the moat

This is the answer to all of your questions. Network effect and brand recognition sell Oracle, Adobe, office etc. Alternatives to all of them already exist, with either feature parity or close enough for most people.

The existing brands keep going because big companies and institutions don't pay for products vibe coded by some guy in a garage, they buy products that have paid support that they know will continue to exist for years.

[bigstrat2003]

> But one day, who is to say the industry won't be disrupted by a vibe coded database with ~100% Oracle compatibility?

Based on the abysmal ability of LLMs to write code today, that's not likely to happen. One never knows. But I wouldn't put money on it.