[rhubarbtree]

AI assisted coding is going to make it easier to create software. Developers will be more productive. Non developers will be able to create some stuff.

What this means is that very simple apps will become easy to create quickly. So a todo manager is probably not going to be a very successful business. You’ll be competing with many many people and it will be commoditised.

But ultimately what happens here is the “complexity threshold” of a sufficiently complex product needed to make money will be raised. Existing products will become more sophisticated or, if there is not more “sophistication ladder to climb” then they will be commoditised.

There’s just no way people are going to vibe all their software, that’s a very self absorbed nerd take. But on the supply side we’ll see commoditisation, price drops, and increasingly good value for the user as features are shipped faster.

I also think that software quality is really going to tank, because using validation to test the output of Claude is not a good way to ensure quality or correctness. It’ll get you some of the way but you need powerful reasoning. The most obvious evidence for this is security flaws in AI code. We’ll see a new era of enshitification caused by AI code. Like outsourced manufacturing though, people will buy worse stuff at a cheaper price. That makes me sad, because I thought we were on a path to better software, not buggier software.