[MengerSponge]

> If automated driving systems cause accidents at anywhere near the human rate, it'll be outlawed pretty quickly.

This is evidently false. Robotaxi crash rates exceed human drivers', but there's not an effective regulatory agency to outlaw them!

https://futurism.com/advanced-transport/tesla-robotaxis-cras...

[ggreer]

According to that article, Waymo crashes 2.3x more often than human drivers (every 98k miles vs 229k miles), which is clearly false. I think it's far more likely that humans don't report most minor collisions to insurance, and that both Robotaxis and Waymo are safer than human drivers on average.

[cycomanic]

> According to that article, Waymo crashes 2.3x more often than human drivers (every 98k miles vs 229k miles), which is clearly false.

Why is it clearly false? It might be false, but clearly? I would definitely like to see evidence either way.

> I think it's far more likely that humans don't report most minor collisions to insurance, and that both Robotaxis and Waymo are safer than human drivers on average.

That sounds like you are trying to find reasons to get the conclusion you want.

[kube-system]

Definitely. I looked at Tesla's source for these numbers, looks like they primarily used data sourced from police reports, which most people only file if the incident is serious enough to turn into insurance.

Tesla notes:

> These assumptions may contain limitations with respect to reporting criteria, unreported incident estimations (e.g., NHTSA estimates that 60% of property damage-only crashes and 32% of injury crashes are not reported to police

https://www.tesla.com/fsd/safety