[HardCodedBias]

I upvoted you right off reading the first line.

But then you drifted.

I have no idea what you mean by "AGI, however, is mathematically impossible."

Further, your point about political pushback is short sighted. As AI becomes more lucrative there will be more impetuous to "pay" locations to have data centers, and as that becomes too expensive space is clearly the next answer.

[0xy]

The development of AGI assumes zero constraints, when constraints exist at every layer of the stack. That's why it's mathematically impossible.

In a system driven by capital, manufacturing can ramp to an extent but they generally can't exponentially ramp due to dependencies they have.

When you ramp one layer of the stack, other layers of the stack are pressurized. We're seeing a small preview of that now with memory pricing. But these break points for AGI are everywhere. Power capacity, power infrastructure, DC labor, cooling systems, memory, motherboards, GPUs. All of these things have dependencies that cannot be scaled exponentially, or quickly. As you pressure points of each of these dependencies, prices rise exponentially.

Let's take memory for instance, it is merely one block in the jenga tower but it's a good example. Memory is already at close to 100% capacity. Spinning up new capacity is highly constrained, and money can't really make it faster. Lead times are 4+ years on new plants, which cost billions.

The same is true for other components, and in some cases the situation is worse.

[SAI_Peregrinus]

"Won't happen for 4+ years" and "mathematically impossible" are quite different. Given that humans apparently exhibit the "GI" part of "AGI", I find "mathematically impossible" difficult to believe. "Extremely unlikely with current LLM architecture", sure, but that's a very different statement from "mathematically impossible".