> I knew OpenAI was in trouble the instant they chose Altman over Ilya Sutskever.
I am not so sure:
This decision rather tells something important about the priorities of the string-pullers behind the curtain:
They clearly want(ed) to monetize what is there, with the risk that only smaller improvements for the AI models will happen from OpenAI, and thus OpenAI might get outcompeted by competitors who are capable of building and running a much better model.
If this is the priority (no matter whether you like or despise Sam Altman), you will likely prefer Sam Altman over Ilya Sutskever.
If, on the other hand, a fast monetization is less important than making further huge leaps towards much better AI models, you will, of course, strongly prefer Ilya Sutskever over Sam Altman.
Thus, I wouldn't say that choosing Sam Altman over Ilya Sutskever is a sign that OpenAI is in trouble, but a very strong sign where the string-pullers behind the curtain want OpenAI to be. Both Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever are just marionettes for these string pullers. When they have served their role, they get put back into the box.
Yes I agree. Altman was the rational choice if you realise that eventually the huge R&D bill will need to stop for atleast a moderate period (<5 years).
You want to ride that out before capitalising on the eventual cheaper training costs once the rug has been pulled.
Altman has already succeeded here as it seems inference for API and chat is profitable but offset with massive R&D costs.
aleph_minus_one|5 days ago
I am not so sure:
This decision rather tells something important about the priorities of the string-pullers behind the curtain:
They clearly want(ed) to monetize what is there, with the risk that only smaller improvements for the AI models will happen from OpenAI, and thus OpenAI might get outcompeted by competitors who are capable of building and running a much better model.
If this is the priority (no matter whether you like or despise Sam Altman), you will likely prefer Sam Altman over Ilya Sutskever.
If, on the other hand, a fast monetization is less important than making further huge leaps towards much better AI models, you will, of course, strongly prefer Ilya Sutskever over Sam Altman.
Thus, I wouldn't say that choosing Sam Altman over Ilya Sutskever is a sign that OpenAI is in trouble, but a very strong sign where the string-pullers behind the curtain want OpenAI to be. Both Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever are just marionettes for these string pullers. When they have served their role, they get put back into the box.
rustyhancock|5 days ago
You want to ride that out before capitalising on the eventual cheaper training costs once the rug has been pulled.
Altman has already succeeded here as it seems inference for API and chat is profitable but offset with massive R&D costs.