[mrweasel]

It probably doesn't matter that subscriptions are profitable, when some estimates put the number of users in the free tier at 96%.

I sort of agree with you, not that it's the most subscriptions necessarily that will be the deciding factor, but the there's going to be some companies better positioned to survive when the free money stops. OpenAI has the brand, so that might help, but mostly I think they'll get absorbed into Microsoft. I don't think they can stand on their own. It doesn't seem like a particularly well managed company, so to me it makes more sense that they are simply acquired for pennies on the dollar by someone with better leadership.

[rustyhancock]

> when some estimates put the number of users in the free tier at 96%.

It's certainly almost everyone today, but that's because enshitificarion has yet to start properly.

The risk to OpenAI is that their free tier are captured by the tack on markets (i.e. Gemini with 2TB of cloud storage).

But otherwise they will make free more annoying until people just buy the cheap tier and then move up from there. Like chatgpt Go.

[piva00]

They will open up to be undercut by players like Gemini that can provide a less-shitty free tier, and capture their market share.

I seriously doubt, at this moment, that OpenAI can come up with a offering good enough to entice people to pay for them when there will be other free to use services around. Google seems to be well positioned to eat their lunch.