[trimethylpurine]

That's not exactly true, it seems. Forecasts become less accurate the further out you go, unlike coin flips.

Weather forecasts are generally accurate about 90% of the time for a five-day forecast and around 80% for a seven-day forecast. Forecasts beyond ten days are only correct about half the time.

[triceratops]

Why do you pack a light jacket if you go to Tasmania for a week in June, regardless of the forecast?

[InitialLastName]

Why might you wear a life jacket on a boat, even though you're 99.9% likely not to have the boat flip over?

[baueric]

you're conflating statistics and trends with discrete predictions

[trimethylpurine]

Well, I'm not. The previous poster is. I'm more simply pointing out, without using terminology, that we shouldn't.