[hippo22]

I think you’re missing my point: we’re only able to predict large numbers of coin flips because we have an accurate model.

We don’t have an accurate model for weather, so we can’t predict it well.

I don’t see a reason to assume our model for climate is accurate, either.

[felixgallo]

Our models of weather are so accurate that literally trillions of dollars per year bank on them in the agriculture sector, the shipping sector, and everywhere else. Similarly, our models of climate change have been refined and refined, and now are essentially irrefutable.

[Recurecur]

::multiple laughing emojis::

Our “models of climate change” have regularly been falsified at this point. It is absolutely unknown how much “climate change” is attributable to humans right now.

Nor is it actually known what the net favorability of mild warming might be…including the possibility of mitigating the next Ice Age!

[baueric]

Predictive models are not the same as historic data analysis and trend fitting.

Flipping coins: no predictive models, very definitive statistics Weather: +/- 2 week predictive models, 100 years of measurements getting more definitive each year where trend are headed