[gwern]

> I'd note that there are many studies showing that the usual outcomes for gifted kids are not all that great.

No, there's not, and they do do great. And this goes back to Terman: there's a handful of highly selected examples (eg the Australian kids recruited from child psychologist referrals, the self-selected self-diagnosed Mensa adult survey), furious anecdotes, and then every systematic prospective sample like Terman or population registers or SMPY shows the opposite.

And while Tao is, of course, exceptional, the results for accelerated gifted kids are generally great. And Tao was part of SMPY (note the URL path, supporting documentation for https://gwern.net/smpy ) and helped demonstrate this in practice.

[drited]

Gwern on that smpy site what does the O-like character next to certainty: log mean?

I'm viewing on chrome from an Android device.

I'm trying to figure out what your certainty on smpy is.

Also thank you for your site. I read your n back analysis some years ago and found it to be very interesting.

[gwern]

The SMPY page is essentially an annotated bibliography: fulltext + abstract + commentary. Since the papers are of highly varied quality, it doesn't much make sense to try to put any particular confidence on it; I am convinced of some things, but definitely not others - particularly the early papers when they had little data and were still experimenting a lot. If I had an essay making a specific claim about SMPY then sure, but I don't really.

The fact that 'certainty' ratings don't make sense for pages like that is part of why these days, I wouldn't have a page like that at all. An annotated bibliography is not an 'essay' and shouldn't be shoehorned into my framework meant for that kind of opinionated writing. I realized that if I was going to 'annotate' a paper, I would either have to go without, or copy-paste it all around indefinitely and it'd violate DRY and be a nightmare. Long story short, https://gwern.net/doc/iq/high/smpy/index is closer to what that page should be, but it's a lot of work to sit down and convert the legacy page over to pure annotations, so, it is what it is. Maybe a LLM can do it for me soon - it seems within the ability of Claude Code.