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root_axis | 5 days ago

I think it's always important to consider incentives when thinking about what institutional leaders are saying.

> In a productivity boom such as this, a rise in unemployment may not indicate increased slack. As such, our normal demand-side monetary policy may not be able to ameliorate an AI-caused unemployment spell without also increasing inflationary pressure

I'm not saying AI isn't impacting the employment market, but this statement isn't really about AI so much as it is an advance warning that inflationary monetary policy is unavoidable if all the people saying that software engineering is dead are correct.

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selridge|5 days ago

Or that the fed is preparing us to expect higher levels of unemployment for the same level of inflation.

root_axis|5 days ago

Perhaps, but her phrasing seems to imply they will act to reduce unemployment, and we can also assume Trump will mandate that they do so once he takes control of the fed.

twoodfin|5 days ago

Monetary policy isn’t inflationary if it’s on par with real production gains. More money chasing even more more goods is deflationary.