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whatever1 | 4 days ago

Gasoline might be on decline (but the gas car fleet will take decades to turn over), but for literally everything else there is no viable alternative. Trucks, ships, airplanes, freight trains, even heating for older buildings.

So no, we need our refineries for a good part of this century. Likely we will keep just the integrated ones (chemical + fuels).

discuss

order

tialaramex|4 days ago

In several countries their freight trains are electric today. Trucks can be electric too, and a lot of shipping needn't run on fossil fuels although we're further off widespread commercial offerings than we are for trains or trucks which you can just buy today.

The main obstacle is aeroplanes, so that's Jet-A aka Kerosene as fuel, but even then if the numbers get nasty the airlines will kill a lot of services rather than try to pass on unaffordable prices and eat the fuel cost when there aren't enough buyers.

arcade79|4 days ago

Given the rapid expansion of solar, and that it keeps accellerating, we're less than 10 years away from seeing a massive decline in demand for gasoline.

I don't know the chemistry, and whether that'll make more hydrocarbons available for creating Jet-A, but I do expect that there will be massive overproduction of gasoline - and if price is left to market demand, it'll drop.

It won't get cheaper than solar though.

toomuchtodo|4 days ago

Whether we need them will be a function if they are financially sustainable. No profit, and they will close (as is the case with the Valero Benicia refinery in Northern California, shuttering April 2026). That is the linchpin to push fossil fuels to failure faster, find economically vulnerable and/or unsustainable fossil infrastructure and push it to failure (fossil supply chain death spiral). Because if no one will pay for it, it will not continue to exist, and the demand base to spread fixed costs across will only shrink into the future, pushing prices to unaffordability compared to non fossil alternatives.

(think in systems)

newyankee|4 days ago

India has effectively electrified almost all of its rail transit. USA or other countries do not need to electrify all lines and the long tail is too long but even the major ones can bring in big benefits. No need to even get China in this equation.

jandrese|4 days ago

Trains are one of the easiest forms of transport to electrify. Yes, the US is going to drag its heels on doing so, but the rest of the world is already moving on.

ViewTrick1002|4 days ago

Maritime shipping is targeting synfuels or ammonia. Hydrogen is not dense enough for ocean crossing voyages, too much cargo space is lost. They see the writing on the wall.

whatever1|3 days ago

Out of the stupid ideas for energy transition, ammonia takes the top spot as the stupidest.

The whole point of transitioning away from fossils is to protect human life, not to eradicate it in seconds.