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The Tax Nerd Who Bet His Life Savings Against DOGE

31 points| igonvalue | 5 days ago |wsj.com

18 comments

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throwaway81523|5 days ago

Story here: https://www.mediaite.com/politics/conservative-economist-sco...

Archive.is gives server error on the wsj url.

TLDR: Musk fans bet that DOGE would cut government spending so the guy bet against them. He ended up betting around $342K (his liquid assets, not what most of us would call life savings) and hedged some of it later. Eventual result was he gained $128K.

nxobject|5 days ago

That article's even better: the bet was a bipartisan one!

> The WSJ report noted that Cole sought advice from other fiscal policy wonks, including Brookings Institution fellow Jessica Riedl, who said the outcome of the bet “should have been completely obvious to anyone who knows anything about the government, the budget and public administration.”

fruitworks|5 days ago

that doesnt seem like super great returns

panick21_|5 days ago

I mean that was kind of obvious, but I wouldn't know how to bet against that. Defense wasn't going to get cut. Cutting social security and friends is incredibly unlikely. Debt interest is impossible to cut. DOGE believed in cutting outside of that, and that's practically impossible.

PS: After reading the article, is assertion is a bit stronger then that, but still very likely. Good bet.

nubg|5 days ago

Still gambling.

panick21_|5 days ago

Literally any place you put your money is gambling. Its impossible not to gamble if you have money.

cweagans|5 days ago

So?

paxys|5 days ago

I was expecting the article to end with “he won tens of millions and never has to work again”, but gambling your life savings on a sketchy betting site for a potential 35% return is idiotic.

tylervigen|5 days ago

The “gambled his life savings” framing in the article is very hyperbolic.

He gambled $300K from his extra savings outside his retirement accounts, and he hedged significantly to reduce downside risk.