[throwaway81523]

Story here: https://www.mediaite.com/politics/conservative-economist-sco...

Archive.is gives server error on the wsj url.

TLDR: Musk fans bet that DOGE would cut government spending so the guy bet against them. He ended up betting around $342K (his liquid assets, not what most of us would call life savings) and hedged some of it later. Eventual result was he gained $128K.

[nxobject]

That article's even better: the bet was a bipartisan one!

> The WSJ report noted that Cole sought advice from other fiscal policy wonks, including Brookings Institution fellow Jessica Riedl, who said the outcome of the bet “should have been completely obvious to anyone who knows anything about the government, the budget and public administration.”

[duxup]

Anyone with any sort of intellectual honesty, or reads any kind of responsible news source would know that despite a solidly controlled GOP government, "fiscal responsibility" is just a slogan for the GOP. They're big government and big deficit spenders through and through.

[fruitworks]

that doesnt seem like super great returns

[bonesss]

I think it’s the framing. ‘Bet’ makes us think about doubling up.

This guy made a very calculated low risk wager for pretty great near-term rewards. He outperformed most hedge funds over the same period.

If he had gone all in on ‘black’ twice at a Vegas roulette wheel it’d be a more impressive total, but that’s gambling.

[camgunz]

~40% in a few months is epic

[currymj]

if you think of it like a bond it’s pretty fantastic. coupon rate 3.5% and you got it at a giant discount to par even though it’s actually (according to this guy’s beliefs which proved correct) nearly certain to be repaid.

[mindslight]

It ain't much, but it's honest work.

[panick21_]

I mean that was kind of obvious, but I wouldn't know how to bet against that. Defense wasn't going to get cut. Cutting social security and friends is incredibly unlikely. Debt interest is impossible to cut. DOGE believed in cutting outside of that, and that's practically impossible.

PS: After reading the article, is assertion is a bit stronger then that, but still very likely. Good bet.