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pfannkuchen | 4 days ago
Re debt loads - does the debt load actually materially affect default risk in this case? It’s not like US bonds are officially rated as high risk, at least. Debt to GDP is one thing but without a comparison to other bonds and their associated debt to GDP and a relationship inferred from that data it doesn’t really say anything in a vacuum. Why would it be done this way instead of just paying directly? As opposed to the more straightforward explanation of US bonds just having a favorable payout to risk ratio vs other options. It just smells like some kind of conspiratorial thinking and I’m not sure if it actually adds up.
Honestly asking by the way, I haven’t seen anyone spell out the theory and it just seems quite hand wavey to me.
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