[gck1]

If OSS models are 6-12 months behind, it means sometime during 2026, we'll see a model that is on par with the likes of GPT 5.2/Opus 4.5.

For code generation specifically, the performance level of this is going to be more than enough for this customer base. What does Anthropic do then to justify $200/mo price sticker? Better model? Just how much better? Better tools? Single company can't compete with the tools entire OSS can produce.

I would be unable to sleep if I was running OAI / Anthropic.

[theptip]

If capabilities stop increasing for some reason, then yeah, Anthropic is screwed.

If METR task times double twice into the multi-day range in 12 months, then it’s plausible to me that Anthropic can charge $1k/mo or more by automating large chunks of the SWE role. (They have 10x’d their revenue every year, perhaps “value of enterprise contracts” is a better way of intuiting their growth rather than “$/seat” since each seat gets way more productive in this world-branch.)

[otabdeveloper4]

Just game the benchmarks, bro. (The singularity we didn't want or ask for.)

It's what the current model providers are doing anyways.