[mikeayles]

Fair point that a full TCO comparison would be more complete, and it's something I'm planning to cover in a later post. But the capital cost argument actually reinforces the conclusion rather than undermining it. Hydrogen fuel cell trucks are currently 2-3x the price of diesel equivalents, roughly comparable to battery electric. The infrastructure CAPEX is dramatically higher for hydrogen (£2-5M per station vs. transformer upgrades for depot charging). And the fuel cost gap means hydrogen has higher opex too. Diesel wins today on upfront cost, yes, but hydrogen doesn't beat BEV on capital or operating costs in any current scenario I've seen. Happy to be shown numbers that say otherwise.

The big thing I haven't covered yet is HVO, which provides the WTT CO₂ saving at a slight fuel cost surcharge, which matters if a fleet is mandated to reduce their CO₂. The TCO assuming a £100k diesel truck and £200k lifetime fuel cost, a 10% HVO surcharge brings the TCO to £320k, versus a £250-350k BEV truck that costs maybe £80k in electricity over the same life. That's £320k with an 80-90% CO₂ reduction from a drop in fuel you can put in your existing trucks tomorrow, versus £280k for battery electric with zero tailpipe. Both of those are available now, with existing infrastructure. Hydrogen is asking you to spend £300k+ on the truck, £150k+ on fuel, and hope someone builds a station within range of your routes.

[akamaka]

It would be a stronger argument if you first tried looking at the cases where hydrogen has an advantage. The port example you brought up, where hydrogen is produced on site, is a good one to analyze. If you can look at cost projections of fuels cells and electrolyzers vs. batteries over the next 20 years and demonstrate that there’s no chance hydrogen will catch up, that would be a very strong argument, since it doesn’t rely on the hand-wavy “fueling infrastructure will never happen” argument.