[AdamN]

I'm aligned there. I think it will be Google/Gemini gets 50% of the generic market and then OpenAI gets 30% (via Microsoft) and then a long tail. The rest of the vendors will be awesome at their markets (Claude Code for coders) and can handle generic stuff too.

Apple will do whatever they do but it will solely drive users in the Apple ecosystem and they will likely just use one of the other vendors - I'm guessing Google longterm since they speak the same language. There's no point in empowering Anthropic/OpenAI to sit at the top of the pyramid although oddly Apple and OpenAI did that partnership but I feel like that was Apple not thinking ahead.