[DrScientist]

So in summary OpenAI are basing their valuation of 285 billion on the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'???

Seems optimistic when there is very little intrinsic stickness due to learning the UI or network effects. Perhaps a little bit chat history - but not 285 billions worth.

Also completely ignoring the fact that most devices things will start to come with the same features directly built into the device/app - and the largest market will be as a commodity backend api that the eventually users won't know or care if it's a google or openai model.

As I see it, they need to be doing stuff nobody else can ( in either price or performance ), otherwise it's hard to justify the valuation.

[graemep]

It have worked for Google for years, and that was without even the barrier of download in app, just going to a different URL.

[b3kart]

Don’t you think that’s because Google was objectively a head above everyone other search engine for a long time?

[kergonath]

Google was clearly superior fo a long time. They got close to 90% before enshitification started in earnest. We are not at that stage yet with AI chatbots.

Also, Google benefited from being the default on mainstream OSes. When people have to download an application, getting one or the other does not take more effort. Yes, OpenAI being tightly integrated within Windows, Android, and iOS would be a moat. That’s not the case and it is unlikely to happen. Google will go with their own and Apple won’t put itself in a situation where they are reliant on a single company, they got burned enough times.

[zadikian]

Search is easy to monetize with ads and less expensive to operate. Unless AI services can do the same thing, they'll have to charge money at some point, and then customers will look for the cheapest.

[array_key_first]

All of googles products are unique in some way and have genuine moats. The search engine was the best. The ecosystem was there and pretty good. Docs had online collaboration. And on and on.

[carlosjobim]

You'd be surprised that most people don't find any pleasure in comparing and trying out different software. They're looking for something which works and ChatGPT is just an amazing product. People aren't going to look for something else unless it breaks for some reason.

Most people who have a vehicle aren't trying out different motor oils, or comparing every month if they should change model, etc.

> As I see it, they need to be doing stuff nobody else can ( in either price or performance ), otherwise it's hard to justify the valuation.

Do you have a car? What does it do that no other car does?

[ggregoire]

> the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'???

don't even need to download anything, just open your browser and go to google.com to use gemini

last week-end, I've seen a non-tech friend who previously used chatGPT on his phone, just go on google to ask stuff to the AI (they have no idea it's gemini and it doesn't matter)

if you are not looking for having some kind of relationship with an AI (from what I understand people use chatGPT for this use case), but just looking for an AI to search stuff, then in my opinion you can't beat google search + gemini summary all at once for free with a single prompt

[singleshot_]

Directing your attention to Coca-Cola

[wlesieutre]

Easy for me to download a different app. Not easy for me to get everyone I communicate with to download a different app.

I don't see the laziness lock in working nearly as effectively for something outside of messaging.

[louiereederson]

Apple is a two sided market between developers and users. OpenAI has not succeeded in building this so far.

[niam]

When unstructured human language is the bulk of your interface, it takes effort to contrive any vendor lock-in that doesn't approach zero.

The same doesn't go for traditional, structured software ecosystems, which can afford to coast for a lot longer.

[DrScientist]

Sorry - being dim - I don't get that.

[fatata123]

You’re comparing a single app with an entire ecosystem and app marketplace. Poor comparison.