[grayhatter]

> I can never work out if the companies are deluded and truly believe they're about to create a singularity or just claiming they are to reassure investors/convince the public of their inevitability.

You can never figure out if the people selling something are lying about it's capabilities, or if they've actually invented a new form of intelligence that can rival or surpass billions of years of evolution?

I'd like to introduce you to Occam Razor

[ptsneves]

> if they've actually invented a new form of intelligence that can rival or surpass billions of years of evolution?

Human creations have surpassed billions of years of evolution at several functions. There are no rockets in nature, nor animals flying at the speed of a common airliner. Even cars, or computers or everything in the modern world.

I think this is a bit like the shift from anthropocentric view of intelligence towards a new paradigm. The last time such shift happened heads rolled.

[grayhatter]

Without a doubt, AGI will be invented much faster with a model to copy from. But similar to rockets, first we'll needed basic gunpowder, then refined fuels, all well before purified kerosene, well before liquified h2 and o2. LLM feel a lot closer to gun powder than even solid rocket fuel. (but because I'm exhausted by the hype, I'm gonna claim that is based on nothing but vibes)

[afavour]

You missed the part where I said "truly believe". I'm not saying "maybe they've made it", I'm asking whether they are knowingly deceiving people or whether they have deluded themselves into believing what they are saying.

[grayhatter]

ah, apologies, I missed that part.

> I'm asking whether they are knowingly deceiving people or whether they have deluded themselves into believing what they are saying.

I'd bet it's both. Engineers/people making it, are drowning in the hype. Combined with the notion of how hard it is understand something when your salary, or your stock options are based on your lack of understanding. I suspect they care more about building the cool thing, than the nuance they're ignoring to make all the misleading or optimistic claims; whichever side you take depending on how much you actually believe of the inevitability... which look exactly like lies if you're not drinking the koolaid. But expected excitement when your life is all about this "magic"