- The real, fundamental economy has been propped up by shale oil
- Shale is running out, energy needs are increasing rapidly
- Debt is coming due
- Tariffs are an effort to manage the debt situation by creating a Eurodollar vacuum
- Politicians and the public don’t really understand this, so the whole thing is going to end up framed as a geopolitical conflict rather than a debt crisis
- The framing is dangerous and may create a real kinetic conflict due to misunderstandings at home and abroad
As a systems thinker I suspect this is closer to reality than the usual narratives. Historically, most large scale conflicts reduce to resource conflicts, even if they have political or ideological involvement.
iamnothere|3 days ago
- The real, fundamental economy has been propped up by shale oil
- Shale is running out, energy needs are increasing rapidly
- Debt is coming due
- Tariffs are an effort to manage the debt situation by creating a Eurodollar vacuum
- Politicians and the public don’t really understand this, so the whole thing is going to end up framed as a geopolitical conflict rather than a debt crisis
- The framing is dangerous and may create a real kinetic conflict due to misunderstandings at home and abroad
As a systems thinker I suspect this is closer to reality than the usual narratives. Historically, most large scale conflicts reduce to resource conflicts, even if they have political or ideological involvement.