top | item 47172664

Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

283 points| littlexsparkee | 5 days ago |idc.com

323 comments

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ProfessorLayton|5 days ago

Somehow, with 12GB of RAM, I can't get my iPhone 17 Pro to keep more than a few safari tabs open without having them refresh when I come back from an app or two, and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!).

A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem.

I also wonder what this means for smartphone-esque devices like the Switch 2. If this goes on long enough I won't be surprised if they release a 'lite' model with less RAM/Storage and bifurcate their console capabilities, worse than what they did with 3DS > 2DS .

intrasight|4 days ago

It's really nuts how much RAM and CPU have been squandered. In, 1990, I worked on a networked graphical browser for nuclear plants. Sun workstations had 32 mb memory. We had a requirement that the infographic screens paint in less that 2 seconds. Was a challenge but doable. Crazy thing is that computers have 1000x the memory and like 10,000x the CPU and it would still be a challenge to paints screens in 2 seconds.

brendyn|4 days ago

I was trying to upload a 300mb video via the local police's web interface, a very important matter. I had to set my phone screen to stay on for 30 minutes and then leave the web browser open without touching it. Disabling all power saving measures makes not difference. This was the only way I could get it to finish uploading. I'm on a pixel 8 pro with grapheneos. Same thing in both Firefox and vanadium. I don't think it runs out of ram, the system is just too trigger happy. The battery still doesn't last all day anyway.

bigstrat2003|4 days ago

> A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem.

Considering how many people are so averse to programming that they use LLMs to generate code for them? Not very likely IMO. I would like to see it happen, but people seem allergic to actually trying to be good at the craft these days.

canthonytucci|4 days ago

I feel like my 3GS was way better about resuming where I left off than any fancy new iPhone I’ve had in the past few years.

Big name apps like Facebook, YouTube, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts seem totally disinterred in preserving my place.

YouTube being the worst where I often stack a bunch of videos in queue, pause to do something else for a while and when I return to the app the queue has been purged.

thewebguyd|5 days ago

iOS I think has really aggressive background task killing, and it also drives me insane. I know they do it for battery life but I'm about ready to switch to Android, and would have a long time ago if I that didn't also mean replacing my watch, headphones, etc.

Is it too much to ask for me to manage my own background processes on my phone? I don't want the OS arbitrarily deciding what to pause & kill. If it actually does OOM, give me a dialog like macOS and ask me what to kill. Then again, if a phone is going OOM with 12GB of RAM there's a serious optimization problem going on with mobile apps.

jama211|4 days ago

Very specific complaint that has nothing to do with the amount of ram you have, that’s a software choice in iOS. Kinda a tangent for a top comment.

giancarlostoro|5 days ago

I really dont understand that at all. Web Pages are mostly static, you would think the iPhone would cache websites reasonably well.

I remember on Android I dont recall the app name specifically, but it would let me download any website for offline browsing or something, would use it when I knew I might have no internet like a cruise.

Heck there used to be an iOS client for HN that was defunct after some time, but it would let you cache comments and articles for offline reading.

mschuster91|4 days ago

> and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!).

Spotted the German lol

The general problem is that many people don't bother testing their apps outside of their office wifi with low latency, low jitter, low packet loss and high bandwidth. Something like persisting the state when the OOM/battery-save killer comes knocking onto some cloud endpoint? Perfectly fine on wifi... but on a mobile connection that might just be EDGE, cut entirely because the user is just getting a phone call and the carrier does not do VoLTE, or be of an absurd latency? Whoops. Process killer knocks a -9 and that's it, state be gone.

Side note: Anyone know of a way to prevent the iPhone hotspot from disassociating with a MacBook when the phone loses network connectivity? It's darn annoying, I counted having to reconnect twenty times on a train ride less than an hour.

dude250711|5 days ago

Android Firefox with ad blockers - life changing.

alex_duf|4 days ago

In fairness, back in 2017 I bought a OnePlus 5T with 12G of RAM.

That's almost a decade ago.

Phones RAM progression has stagnated for a LONG time, during that time I doubt that webpages have become lighter, so yeah I'm not surprised by what you are saying.

shafiemoji|4 days ago

I am on my $110 android device from 2022 (4GB RAM), and I have never faced the browsing related issues that you mentioned. My phone came with stock android 11 ROM with no bloats, so that might've helped too I guess.

bandrami|4 days ago

> I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem

Maybe, but I have terrible news for you about how much easier it just became to throw software at a problem

dangus|5 days ago

Removing docking functionality could possibly reduce RAM usage by never enabling 4K screen output. This would be similar to the switch lite.

Although, for a $450 device that doesn’t need to make much of a profit on its own, I also don’t think they’re heavy on memory in the first place (12GB). You can buy top quality Chinese Android handhelds with more RAM and better Qualcomm processors than the Switch 2 for about the same price, and those companies are making $0 in software royalties (e.g., AYN Thor Max is $450 with a 16GB/1TB configuration).

dawnerd|4 days ago

It’s not just mobile safari, safari on desktop does the same thing even with lots of memory available. Whatever they’re doing to limit a tabs resources needs to go, it’s so frustrating.

tzs|4 days ago

That tab refreshing thing really bugs me with fan fiction. If I think I might want to reread a story someday I'll download it, because if you read fan fiction you learn that many authors come back and fiddle with their earlier stories, sometimes even replacing the entire old story with chapter 1 of a complete rewrite. Even in the rare case that they actually do eventually finish the rewrite it is often not as good as the original.

AO3 HTML downloads have the story in one long HTML file. When reading that on iPad that stupid refresh can move you to the top which is pretty damned annoying.

For that very particular situation I do have a workaround, but it involved adding some JavaScript to the download HTML. If anyone else is reading downloaded AO3 HTML and would like this I've put it on pastebin.com. Get saveplace.js [1] and ao3book.css [2] and add this at the end of the head of your AO3 download:

  <script type="text/javascript" src="saveplace.js"></script>
  <link rel="StyleSheet" href="ao3book.css" type="text/css"/>
Saveplace does two things.

First, to address the tab refresh problem, whenever you change your position in the story it waits until you've stopped at a new position for a bit and then records the new position in parameters on the URL. After a refresh happens it looks for those parameters and restores the last saved position.

Second, to make the story easier to read it hides all but the first chapter, adds buttons to move forward and back by chapter, and adds a dropdown to select chapters. It also adds a button to switch between night and day mode. The day/night mode setting is saved in local storage.

Feel free to use this in anything of your own. The chapter navigation stuff is tied to AO3's HTML, but that would be easy to delete leaving just the position saving/restoring. This is in the public domain in places where it is possible to put things in the public domain. If one of us is somewhere that isn't possible you can use it under the MIT No Attribution license (MIT-0).

[1] https://pastebin.com/viTajxy3

[2] https://pastebin.com/v6AF8cmj

eviks|4 days ago

Oh, indeed, that's premium brand experience right there for you: all the basic stuff is broken, would you like to more apple services to go?

dyauspitr|4 days ago

I know this article is about RAM but I truly hate how little storage the iPhone ships with their phones. I guess everyone is using iCloud but I refuse to store my personal data on the cloud. I’m constantly down to 2-3 GB on my phone. I have just 128 GB of storage that’s not upgradable. What a shame.

mikepurvis|5 days ago

Wasn't the 2DS just a 3DS minus the lenticular screen, and especially minus the front-facing camera that did face tracking to improve the quality of the 3D?

My understanding was that market research showed a lot of users were turning off the 3D stuff anyway, so it seemed reasonable to offer a model at lower cost without the associated hardware.

keeda|4 days ago

This is why I miss Windows Phone. My $35 Lumia with 512 MB of RAM was infinitely smoother and faster than the 2GB Samsung Galaxy flagship phone I had, and of comparable fluidity to the so-much-more-expensive iPhones with 2GB RAM.

dizhn|3 days ago

Chinese retro handheld companies started to quietly remove specific information about RAM speed etc. You can even get different hardware per batch.

arvinsim|4 days ago

I feel its because of iOS aggressive RAM saving feature rather than the lack of RAM.

I know this because I still get some of my web pages refreshed even if the browser is literally the only app that is running.

pjmlp|4 days ago

That is what happens when people learn to code and very little value is given to algorithms and data structures, regardless of the programming language.

That and using SPAs for static sites.

TheRoque|4 days ago

IOS or safari issue then, I also have 12GB ram on my S25+, with 25 open tabs, and I quickly did a test, there was non that were un-loaded that I had to reload

It happened a lot on my previous phone with only 4GB ram though

Waterluvian|4 days ago

It’s more likely related to choices involving making the battery last long.

bsoles|4 days ago

Back in the day, I was running AutoCAD on a 386 PC. Now, a single Firefox tab consumes 500MB of memory. That is progress for us.

mosura|5 days ago

Memory uses power, this is a major factor in why aggressively stopping things helps.

There is a strong argument modern mobile goes too far for this.

duskdozer|4 days ago

RAM not filled with cached video ads and tracking scripts is wasted RAM!

asdff|4 days ago

The fact that the current iphone is how much more performant than a 3gs and we are doing what exactly different with it? Still scrolling instagram, text, whatsapp, maps, shitty mobile web, literally nothing has changed about how we use these devices. Nothing. These things should be like camels and have the battery last for weeks by this point. The hell is all that power even going toward? These phones are like Hummers. Just wasteful.

h4kunamata|4 days ago

That is an Apple problem and keep in mind that iPhone doesn't do multi-task, the fact that you are having problems with 12GB is not surprised to me.

I have to use a Macbook M4 at work with 24GB, I have an AMD Lenovo Ryzen7 with 32GB running Linux Mint Cinnamon. It is infuriating how slow this Macbook is, even to shut it down is slow asf.

macOS is not different than Windows, I cannot wait for COB to get back to my Linux laptop.

biophysboy|5 days ago

Am I too much of an idealist to hope that AI leads to less buggy software? On the one hand, it should reduce the time of development; on the other hand, I'm worried devs will just let the agents run free w/o proper design specs.

babypuncher|4 days ago

I honestly think the memory shortage kills the possibility of a Switch 2 Lite.

Nintendo can't realistically take memory budget away from developers after the fact. The 2DS cut the 3D feature from the 3DS, but all games were required to be playable in 2D from day 1, so no existing games broke on the cost-reduced 2DS.

arccy|5 days ago

but think of all your battery life gains

kace91|5 days ago

The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising.

The just announced pixel is the same phone as last year. I know it sounds like a usual complaint, but look at the actual specs, it literally is the same phone with differences so small that hey might have passed as regional variance.

As for the Samsung, the screen can darken when looked from the side for privacy. That’s pretty much it. Price increased though.

Coupled with the current iOS situation it seems like things are… rotting. Everything in decline.

nickjj|4 days ago

> The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising.

It's eyebrow raising for me in other ways.

I have a Pixel 9a and it's been quite good with really solid battery life. It's barely 6 months old and I got it new straight from Google.

A few days ago I noticed the battery started to drain much faster than usual. I also noticed at the same time Google is pushing the 10a.

Nothing changed on my end. I barely use the phone in my day to day. In 10 hours today I sent 3 text messages with Whatsapp and lost 60% of my battery in that time frame. Up until a few days ago, 60% would last me 3 days.

I find it weirdly coincidental that the battery life went from amazing to worse than a 5 year old device I had prior to this just as they are releasing new phones. I've powered it down and given it a full discharge / charge too. It's still draining at an alarming rate.

whynotmaybe|4 days ago

The only reason I changed my phone was because my provider stopped supporting it when migrating to 5g VoIP.

Otherwise I'd still be rocking my S9.

I'm also using a pixel 2 for Android development and Google play billing isn't supported on it.

The hardware is fine but they make it obsolete with software.

I'm guessing they'll soon move to a subscription pricing for phones.

ajross|4 days ago

> Coupled with the current iOS situation it seems like things are… rotting. Everything in decline.

Just "commoditizing". Last years microwave ovens were basically the same as 2024's also, and no one cares. You still need them and people still buy them and use them as much as ever, but at a replacement rate and not because of fashion or innovation.

That is a good thing. It means the economy is doing what it's supposed to do and bringing maximal value to consumers so we can spend our resources more efficiently (on other fashion-driven junk in different market segments), making us richer.

It's only bad news if your business is selling "phones" and not innovative products more generally. Which, yeah, is pretty much AAPL's trap. But that's on them, not us. We're winning.

walterbell|4 days ago

Upcoming Apple display mounted to wall or robot arm is rumored to have audio interface and new OS without 3rd-party apps, only "AI".

Jony Ive at OpenAI is rumored to have smart speaker, pendant, pen and bone-conducting headset in the launch pipeline. Audio interfaces, no screens,

Meta is selling millions of smart glasses, with Apple and others following.

If the memory market was not distorted, home AI + agents + open models could have a bigger role via AMD Strix Halo. Instead, they will be reserved for those who can afford to spend five figures on 512GB or 1TB unified memory on Mac Studio Ultra devices.

tootie|4 days ago

I think even going back a few generations, phones are improving at a much slower pace. You can only jam so many cameras onto a phone frame before users lose interest. A few years back there was a mad dash to add AR features to flagship phones so they could wow us with apps that never materialized. My last few upgrades have been almost imperceptible. Buyers just don't have a good reason to buy new phones every two years.

mikestorrent|4 days ago

I'm actually super fine with the hardware stagnating! Work on the yields, cut the prices, simplify and make it more robust, while keeping the spec the same. It gives developers something to focus on, like a console, so the software gets better over the life of the device, not worse.

Perhaps this could give room for physical design changes instead. I'm sick of phones that are just a slab of glass. I remember fun, weird, fashionable designs! Buttons and keyboards, phones felt like an individual choice, not just this boring black mirror. I'd take ten years of stagnation on hardware development in phones in exchange for ten years of exciting form factors with improving software. Let's face it: the spec is high enough for anything we need to be doing, by now. The software is the real problem, and there's room here for massive improvement.

inigyou|4 days ago

OSes have been in decline for a long time. This memory price is just a blip, though. These supply and demand shocks happen periodically and always return to normal.

Markoff|4 days ago

you better not look at screen:body ratio since Pixel 6a, it decreased for few generations and only now it's finally back on par, that's not what I call evolution/progress

same with Amazfit Bip from like 2018, you can't buy small THIN <10mm watch with battery requiring charging once a month and always readable MIP display (the more sunlight the better)

babypuncher|4 days ago

Don't worry, I'm sure the billions of dollars being spent on AI slop will restore consumer enthusiasm any day now...

Animats|5 days ago

The DRAM shortage and lack of fab capacity have also caused the Playstation 6 to slip to 2029 or so.[1] Game consoles are vulnerable. They need a lot of RAM and have to sell at a moderate price.

The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again. "While memory prices are projected to stabilize by mid-2027, they are unlikely to return to previous level — making the sub-$100 segment (171 million devices) permanently uneconomical." Before, they always came back down in the next RAM glut, when everybody built too much capacity. Why is that not going to happen next time?

[1] https://www.heise.de/en/news/Storage-crisis-Playstation-6-co...

vlovich123|5 days ago

You’re asking why a market that has had 3 price fixing lawsuits in less than 2 decades (criminal convictions in 1998, civil in 2006 and 2018) isn’t going to follow market dynamics?

mlyle|5 days ago

One reason we end up with excess capacity is process improvements; adding new fabs to get more density or performance doesn't make old fabs go away, and so we go through cycles of excess capacity. Demand has been relatively constant.

Here we're facing different forces-- unprecedented demand for DRAM that may be durable. But it also looks like the pace of supply changes may be decreased as process improvements get smaller and the industry stops moving so much in lockstep.

It still matters what happens to the demand function, though. If enough AI startups blow up that there's a lot of secondhand SDRAM in the market, and demand for new SDRAM is impacted, too, that will push things down.

Sort of like what happened with the glut of telecom equipment after

darthoctopus|5 days ago

> Why is that not going to happen next time?

Because this shortage isn't natural, it's the result of OpenAI flexing monopsony power to deprive everyone else for its strategic gain. Unlike an organic shortage, there is no compelling reason for otherwise excess capacity to be built, since this artificial shortage can end as arbitrarily as it started.

xenadu02|4 days ago

> The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again

Sure thing. I'd take a look at IDC & similar firms' forecasting history before worrying too much about what they say.

There is an AI boom right now. There will be a consolidation cycle at some point. When that happens half the players, if not more, will disappear. The huge hardware budgets will go with them.

We also can't be certain that the DRAM makers aren't capitalizing on this opportunity because they can. Remember: all of them are convicted monopolists. As in actual prison time convicted. And fined. And lost civil lawsuits. Multiple times.

I just can't see AI paying enough of a premium on HBM to justify the DRAM spikes. Frankly I can't see the volume either. Wafer starts on DRAM are dramatically bigger than you are probably imagining. DRAM is in practically everything these days. AI servers is but a drop in the bucket. 10% of the market? Yeah right, if its 4% I'd be shocked. And you are telling me a shift of 4% of wafers to HBM is driving these prices and shortages?

I humbly suggest if you look at the numbers something smells funny.

Disclaimer: none of us has access to the actual data, a lot of it is inferred by industry players. Some are well connected and usually accurate but that is not evidence. Therefore it is possible this is a genuine market action and nothing nefarious is going on.

lawn|3 days ago

And of course, the Steam Machine also has a very uncertain future.

ErneX|4 days ago

We don’t know when the PS6 is going to be released, as of now that is just a rumor.

OsrsNeedsf2P|5 days ago

I recently upgraded from the Pixel 7 to the 10. Nothing but regret - the phone isn't worse, but it's not better either, and I had to reinstall everything. Why did I do this?

drnick1|4 days ago

Pixels only make sense if you are going to install Graphene. The Google OS is bloated with spyware.

trvz|5 days ago

That’s on Google. iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max are amazing upgrades.

pm90|4 days ago

13%!!! This should be a code red level event for … the world? I … don’t understand how world leaders are just standing by? Smartphone growth/adoption has been the bedrock of a LOT of economic growth. I would have expected massive Government intervention to avoid this.

Where are the China hawks? The argument for protecting Taiwan was that without their chips the smartphone market would contract, right? Thats whats happening now?!

vessenes|5 days ago

Meanwhile Apple iPhone sales were up 23% YoY end of last year. It'll likely be a good year for Apple, with a little more room in margin to make some plays, and a lottt of cash.

inigyou|4 days ago

That was last year when the DRAM price crisis hadn't happened yet...

jeffbee|5 days ago

Programmers who know how to pack a struct: your moment has come!

Qem|4 days ago

Also Python generators for the lulz. They help one to write extremely memory-efficient programs. Perhaps the memory shortage further helps cement Python in the language popularity charts, vis-à-vis languages that tend to load whole data in memory by default, like R.

throwaway270925|4 days ago

I wonder if we will ever get an aproximate percentage of GDP or some other hard numbers for how much Sam/OpenAI (and the manufacturers ofc) hurt the global economy with all of this?

Less phones,computers,consoles,servers,etc sold (and everything that follows this) seems a way larger impact on the economy than a few thousand new ChatGPT Pro memberships...

donkeybeer|4 days ago

Why not blame the price fixers? Why are you blaming buyers, small or huge?

pier25|4 days ago

The price for whatever we're getting out of AI is way too high.

donkeybeer|4 days ago

If ai causes the price fixing in ram then it will have been worth it several times over.

barbazoo|4 days ago

Dropped my iPhone couple of days ago so I had to go back to an old phone. Pixel 3a. Opens Signal and HomeAssistant faster than my 2022 iPhone ever did so why would I even buy a new phone and go back at this point. The best phones (prive/value) have already been built and sold.

piokoch|4 days ago

Well, maybe people stop changing their smartphone every two years. Or every year. Imagine the positive impact on the environment!

I am always surprised that when the planet caring, liberal Apple boss shows up on the Big Apple Event stage, he encourages people to ruin the planet by needles purchase of the new hardware, even though the old one can do the same job easily, as now the improvements are barely incremental, if any.

dheera|4 days ago

I don't think it's about memory shortage.

It's that everything has become 20% more expensive in the past year, I'm being taxed to death, fighting with companies trying to money grab me, my electric bill is now $800, and I'm now too broke to buy a new phone every 2 years when most of my income gets eaten by the "system".

I'll wait until either SPY does another 50% run or BTC does another 100% run and then I'll buy a new phone. Google, you want me to buy your new phone? Do something to make SPY or BTC go up and then we'll talk. Until then my current phone works, and the new features aren't a must-have.

inigyou|4 days ago

SPY has been flat when measured in other currencies btw. Everything's 20% more expensive and SPY is up 20% because US money is worth 20% less.

hrpnk|4 days ago

Let's hope the component shortages will drive performance improvements in Apps as it will be unfeasible to expect higher specs to fix performance bottlenecks. Constraints can drive good behavior.

ValentinPearce|4 days ago

I remember a few years back when Jon Blow (Braid, The Witness) did a few talks about the fact that the biggest progress in recent years had been in hardware performance, making lazy software development standard since the hardware made it so easy to ignore any limitations.

I'm not as much of a fan these days but I do hope these limitations have the effect of improving best practices.

darthoctopus|5 days ago

Lest we forget, this memory shortage was deliberately engineered [1]. Thanks, OpenAI.

[1]: https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram...

msy|5 days ago

All the more reason to hope that company crashes and burns.

ajross|4 days ago

These are Bonkers times we live in. Be honest, who had "Sam Altman kills Apple Computer" on their 2025/6 Bingo card?

lostmsu|5 days ago

From reading this link it sounds like OpenAI successfully dodged oligopoly bullet.

mschuster91|4 days ago

> Well, actually, there is one other important reason for this article’s existence I'll tack onto the end – a hope that other people start digging into what’s going on at OpenAI. I mean seriously – do we even have a single reliable audit of their financials to back up them outrageously spending this much money…for this? Heck, I’ve even heard from numerous sources that OpenAI is “buying up the manufacturing equipment as well” – and without mountains of concrete proof, and/or more input from additional sources on what that really means…I don’t feel I can touch that hot potato without getting burned…but I hope someone else will…

And I'd say if it ends up being shown there even is the slightest hint of impropriety going on, trial him. Up to and including capital punishment for the entire board and C level - what OpenAI already has done, even if legally on paper, IMHO is the biggest market manipulation in history, and it's not just one competitor that is suffering but society as a whole.

I don't have an issue with big companies and their super rich investors engaging in petty bitch fights. By all means, hand me some popcorn and soda. But the RAM situation, with everyone not being super rich and flush with cash from AI crazed investors being screwed royally? That is far beyond acceptable.

We need to send a message: you can't mess around with the world economy at that level without feeling serious repercussions. The lives of the billions are not playthings for the select few.

And if it turns out to be outright market manipulation, engaging in deals he doesn't even have the money committed for by others, much less actually have it on his balance sheet? Then it's time for the pitchforks, not even Madoff was this ruthless.

donkeybeer|4 days ago

Holy shit, I had no idea openai ahd such immense international power over manufacturers in independent foreign countries that they can tie the hands of ram companies and forcibly prevent them from making more ram.

selridge|5 days ago

Also worth noting that Apple recently paid a king’s ransom for Samsung RAM

paxys|5 days ago

King's ransom or market price?

meerita|5 days ago

If the memory shortage is real and sustained, I wonder whether we’ll see a secondary effect in the resale market.

WarOnPrivacy|5 days ago

> I wonder whether we’ll see a secondary effect in the resale market.

I'm paying more on ebay for thinkcentre tiny and thinkpads - 12th gen intel and newer.

Refurbished spinny drives have been steadily climbing - up 50% since late last year. That's on top of the 20% mystery jump that happened in the last week of 2024.

ajross|4 days ago

We already are. Check eBay at the component level, which is showing it quite clearly. Look for secondary/reclaimed/refurbished components to backfill the gaps too.

Also be aware that this stuff whipsaws, if OpenAI actually takes posession of that memory and decides they can't use it and dumps, we're going to see a crash. Likewise if they back out of the deals with the memory fabs (or fail and default). There's some scary volatility on the horizon.

coatmatter|3 days ago

One of my trend-following and easily-influenced sisters was quite locked into the Apple ecosystem (iPhones, MacBooks) with her young family, but just over Christmas last year, I spotted them with a refurbished ThinkPad (T490 or thereabouts), with a plan to buy another refurbished ThinkPad.

I /hope/ to see the slowdown in the new phones market affecting the pumped-up chatbot market. To reference Agent Smith, what good is a chatbot if you can't speak?

oblio|5 days ago

Maybe an upside? These past years it feels like meaningful hardware spec bumps are on the horizon, like in the 90s, 2010s.

After all this churn subsides there is a chance entry level Windows laptops will start at 32GB RAM and maybe 8-12GB VRAM?

Which could end up being about 5-10-15 years of progress packed into 2-3-4.

thewebguyd|5 days ago

I doubt. Microsoft would much rather sell you a thin client & a Windows 365 subscription, and Nvidia wants you to use GeForce now instead of buying a GPU.

The shortage is manufactured, I have my doubts it will "end" in a conventional sense. I'm more skeptical and feel like this is yet another consolidation of wealth and a means of taking away compute power from people, which prevents startup competition. This way the hyperscalers are the only ones that can offer any meaningful compute.

loeg|5 days ago

How do you figure? I'd think scarce and expensive RAM would push entry level models to smaller amounts of RAM.

badgersnake|4 days ago

Seems like we’re at the point where the big players are cornering the market in compute so that there is no alternative to giving them your money.

This feels like an antitrust kind of situation.

anymouse123456|4 days ago

Might also be due in part to the latest iOS and iPhone 17 Pros being some of the shittiest, laggiest, lowest quality smart phones ever made.

tachalorah|4 days ago

I'm looking forward to purchasing a Redmi K90. Better than anything on Western markets this year.

jl6|5 days ago

Wait until we find out that all of tech (ever) has been subsidized by the true-so-far assumption of continued growth, allowing today’s costs to be paid for by tomorrow’s larger market.

aziaziazi|4 days ago

Are you talking about tech, pensions or credit?

shirro|4 days ago

Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy.

Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality.

Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or not meet expectations which really is the tip of the iceberg.

The US/SK memory cartel understandably sold out for a massive short term windfall but they their long term decisions to limit supply have created a huge opportunity for China. I wouldn't be surprised if this will go down in the history books as the start of the exit for US/SK from the industry and the start of Chinese dominance.

The smart phone industry is likely to respond with an increasingly hostile anti-consumer approach as they try and lock customers into the cabins of the sinking ship. I expect cheap and cheerful Chinese budget phones aren't going anywhere.

I am happy for ram, cpu and storage to stall. I want a more robust and open phone which can take a fall and be updated long after the vendor loses interest. I expect to uninstall most of my apps rather than install new ones as I increasingly disconnect from an ever more distracting and worthless medium. I have cancelled nearly every subscription service in the last 12 months. And I have been deleting a lot of free accounts and apps. Its like doing a big cleanup. Surprisingly rewarding.

HN has felt like more than 50% AI industry promoting blog spam of little interest to me as a reader for some time. I am setting a budget of ten, no make it five, more posts here. Then I am out for good. Account deletion and no looking back.

mr_toad|4 days ago

> Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality.

Companies have reduced staff because of the impact of tariffs, because of low consumer confidence and spending, or as a ploy to pump share prices. Then they claim it’s AI, because it sounds a lot better to say that you’re reducing headcount because of AI than it does to admit that you’re cutting costs because of falling revenue.

globular-toast|4 days ago

The deeper problem is that businesses are now expected to be funded by investors. There was a time when banks funded new businesses with loans, but now most of their lending is mortgages. Banks were better because they would lend to any business they thought wouldn't go bankrupt and weren't subject to FOMO and thinking only about future profits/exit, which they weren't entitled to.

Question is, is it really impossible for businesses to fund themselves with bank loans now? John Kay wrote about this years ago arguing the finance sector is no longer a good thing for society but has become more of a leech: taxing the money supply but not supporting new businesses. I feel like it's only become worse now. Even insurance is barely really insurance any more. It's more like a savings account that you might be able to withdraw from when you need it, but not necessarily.

mikestorrent|4 days ago

I agree with you on the AI blogspam. This is a lot like the dot-com era, where a profusion of capital is causing people to develop complete horseshit products nobody needs. When the shine comes off, a lot of companies will fade, but many will stick around, and become the FAANGs of the 2030s.

In some ways it's pretty interesting to watch the entire world mobilize production for AI; some folks like to call this "hyperstition" as the future AGI reaches backwards in time to compel its own creation. Wild, but when trillions of dollars - i.e. millions of people's entire life output of work - are being put into something, it's truly an effort on a scale that no societal project has ever been before. There's no leader, nobody is in control, nobody has the grand vision other than "build the thing and get rich in the process". Amazing times to live in. The best use of our time and resources and coordination? Probably not... as we look around our broken cities, stepping over our poor and hopeless...

donkeybeer|4 days ago

Are we sure these are ram shortages or ram "shortages"? If these are "shortages" why blame the ai companies for exposing it, you should complain to the ram maker for refusing to manufacture any.

crowcroft|4 days ago

> Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy.

Would love to know what sectors you would say are obviously under invested. Sounds like an opportunity.

whackernews|4 days ago

Oh that’s weird, I didn’t notice.

2OEH8eoCRo0|4 days ago

So AI will crash the whole tech industry before it's own bubble pops.

hansmayer|4 days ago

Potentially the only mildly positive consequence of the AI bubble?

throwback_dev|5 days ago

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vessenes|5 days ago

slop. also stupid. bad llm. phone values drop 60%+ per year. if you re-parse this without spending all your time on em-dashes you will note that it slows diffusion of next-gen chips, it does not cut off those users.