[mlyle]

One reason we end up with excess capacity is process improvements; adding new fabs to get more density or performance doesn't make old fabs go away, and so we go through cycles of excess capacity. Demand has been relatively constant.

Here we're facing different forces-- unprecedented demand for DRAM that may be durable. But it also looks like the pace of supply changes may be decreased as process improvements get smaller and the industry stops moving so much in lockstep.

It still matters what happens to the demand function, though. If enough AI startups blow up that there's a lot of secondhand SDRAM in the market, and demand for new SDRAM is impacted, too, that will push things down.

Sort of like what happened with the glut of telecom equipment after