"Prediction" markets were supposed to be great because of insiders: they make the probabilities much more accurate and actually useful for forecasting.
But they ended up just being for gamblers and there is no more signal.
Prediction markets are a great idea, but in practice their users (and eventually their owners) only want sports gambling. The addiction overrides everything.
We're sooo screwing over an entire generation of men.
Essentially the argument is that more dumb money in a prediction market provides an even stronger incentive for smart money to join, moving the price back to an accurate probability.
I regularly check geopolitical markets to see if a breaking news story is substantial or not, and find it useful. It can help distinguish between propaganda and intelligence there.
It does seem like there could be a distinction between markets which require genuinely knowledge and analysis (geopolitics), versus pure gambling (sports, crypto up/down 5 minutes, etc), but I'm not sure who's going to bother making it.
So they caught 2 very small cases and both cases were literally posting publicly about how they were doing a thing against the rules. Seems like they can't actually do anything if the culprits aren't total idiots?
Also what is this 5x payment penalty? What mechanism do they have to enforce this?
I thought insiders were an important part of prediction markets? If you want the predictions to be as accurate as possible then you need insider knowledge
Why not? College parking fines is a good example - they can write any parking rules they want (it's their property), and they can print tickets and place it on people's windshields. They cannot put driver in jail or block their registration, but they can prevent someone from graduating or even install wheel clamps on someone's car, as long as that car is on the private property and the driver was warned.
Reading about these cases immediately makes me wonder how much I could get away with before being caught. I've never gambled on any of the prediction markets, but immediately I see the appeal of the game ("the game" being win the most money without being caught). The fact that I see the fun, really drives home to me how dangerous this can be.
Fascinating first principle to thinking about Kalshi 90% of it is sports betting - I assume a lot of their revenue is gambling law regulatory arbitrage atm
These platforms actually seem like a great way to run sports betting to me. Much better than what the actual companies are doing trying to write their own books and risking arbitrage.
Pretty sure insider trading on prediction markets is a feature not a bug. These cases are laughable compared to the true size of insider trading volume on platforms like Kalshi.
The question of what does and doesn't constitute illegal insider trading turns out to be surprisingly subtle, and can vary depending on the type of market. Prediction markets in the U.S. are legally treated as commodities, not as securities like stocks, and insider trading rules for commodities are in some ways less strict. (There are good policy reasons for this; you want to let, e.g., farmers hedge their exposure to the market prices of the stuff they grow, this being the principal reason why we have futures markets, and presumably they have inside information about how their crops are doing.)
Specifically, the CFTC's rules say that it's illegal to "misappropriate confidential information in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence to the source of the information" by using that information to inform your commodity trades. The MrBeast editor likely did that, but the gubernatorial candidate didn't (he didn't promise anyone that he'd keep his candidacy secret), so if it were just up to government regulators and not platform rules, he'd be in the clear.
Matt Levine writes about this a lot (and is both funny and astonishingly good at explaining the workings of financial capitalism to laypeople); most recently he did so about this particular case: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-25/kal...
This is hilariously weak. "over a dozen have become active cases" is so low it made me laugh given how much insider trading happens on these platforms. This post is actually pathetic
Why do we need to allow prediction markets like this at all? It's just gambling dressed up as though it was a stock market. It's just horse racing at a massive scale... except for the hyperstition factor of it actually influencing world events. At least one can pretend, with the regular stock market, that one is investing in the success of a company; though we all know we're a long way from that.
There seems to be no prosocial reason for this whatsoever.
Polymarket and Kalshi have just been declared gambling under New Zealand law, and therefore 'investing' in them is now illegal for New Zealanders. Both companies have been ordered to stop providing services to New Zealanders [0]
My understanding is the original value these markets create is the ability to hedge risk.
If you're worried an event may impact you materially (like cat 5 hurricane in Florida), then you can place a bet that the event will happen, thus hedging some risk if it does happen.
Insurance companies can participate in these products for the same reasons.
Or if you need to hedge against an event that isn't insurable. For example, if you are a high level democrat party leader and you will lose your job if a republican wins, you might take a bet to hedge your risk if your party looses the next cycle.
In recent years I’ve noticed a massive rise in what could be called ‘financial degeneracy.’ Shitcoins, NFTs, sports betting, even stuff like Pokemon cards just seem to be a vehicle for trying to make a quick buck and find a bigger idiot. Prediction markets are a new one in the series. Probably linked to economic nihilism. Young people giving up on the dream of success via traditional means.
A good reason to allow it is because people want to do it and it is as relatively harmful as many other normative human behaviors.. A better reason is that it provides a means of measure real attitudes and opinions. The revealed prices afforded by prediction markets is interesting at the least, and possibly the best source of information for many of topics.
I imagine most countries will regulate it as gambling. Some already do – Netherlands fined Kalshi or Polymarket (don't remember which one) for operating without a gambling license. I guess US will be one of the last ones to do it (certainly won't go for it under the current administration)
When i see those ads I legit thought it required gaming licenses. Just wow, apparently you can get away with gaming as long as it doesn't have the label.
I’ll admit that in my younger days, reading Bryan Caplan and Nassim Taleb, I got caught up in the starry-eyed fantasizing about prediction markets that was (and still is) widespread in the libertarian corners of the internet. Force people to put their money where their mouth is! Combining the wisdom of crowds with Superforecasters will lead to vastly improved decision-making! Prediction markets will be so accurate eventually we’ll run the government on them! It sounds so good on paper.
The reality has been rather different. It’s just another form of gambling that’s wrecking people’s lives, and it's not obvious to me that they’re even very good at forecasting, which might help make up for it (the absurdly overpriced markets re: “is LK-99 a room-temperature superconductor” were one example). It was an interesting hypothesis but a failed experiment: shut it down and move on.
There are prediction markets on a number of questions (most prominently about politics) where people have good reasons besides entertainment value to want to know the answers.
I agree that it's disappointing that so much of it has ended up being sports betting, and would be in favor of targeted regulations to deemphasize that in favor of more socially useful topics.
I for one appreciate that these markets are allowed to exist, but I think the contracts themselves need to be less open to manipulation and interpretation. The Zelensky suit, the mention markets (see coinbase CEO: https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/01/coinbase-ceo-brian-armstro...), the bets on reality TV shows with tons of insider knowledge, the list goes on and on.
By volume these markets only exist because of sports.
rootsudo|3 days ago
So they caught $4000 and $200. Sounds very much like sacrificial pieces.
“yes but see they don’t tolerate insider trading!”
That’s it? One from a social media post by the own person who did it, and another in a slim market and had tips come in?
So it basically comes down to:
1. Don brag about doing something, that I’m not quite sure is illegal but supposedly breaks kalshis terms of service (oh no)!
2. Instead of operating in a thin t̶r̶a̶d̶i̶n̶g̶, sorry, prediction market pool, stick with ones that enable more plausible deniability?
If anything there should be more regulation against prediction markets like Kalshi or even elimination.
hpdigidrifter|3 days ago
There's degeneracy and then there's insiders and that's how these places work.
This account had no prior trades.
comex|3 days ago
skeptic_ai|3 days ago
oofbaroomf|3 days ago
But they ended up just being for gamblers and there is no more signal.
Balgair|3 days ago
We're sooo screwing over an entire generation of men.
YokoZar|3 days ago
Essentially the argument is that more dumb money in a prediction market provides an even stronger incentive for smart money to join, moving the price back to an accurate probability.
tototrains|3 days ago
It does seem like there could be a distinction between markets which require genuinely knowledge and analysis (geopolitics), versus pure gambling (sports, crypto up/down 5 minutes, etc), but I'm not sure who's going to bother making it.
dgrin91|3 days ago
Also what is this 5x payment penalty? What mechanism do they have to enforce this?
ricksunny|3 days ago
Insider, market manipulation, or…?
ffb7c5|3 days ago
sounds like a great cause
bryan0|3 days ago
fortran77|3 days ago
gnabgib|3 days ago
Or Axios yesterday (Kyle Langford + Artem Kaptur(Mr Beast Aid)) https://www.axios.com/2026/02/25/kalshi-insider-trading-susp...
buildbot|3 days ago
inigyou|3 days ago
theamk|2 days ago
pinkmuffinere|3 days ago
aresant|3 days ago
https://closingline.substack.com/p/the-takeaway-kalshi-non-s...
tyleo|3 days ago
RyanShook|3 days ago
verdverm|3 days ago
Having private platforms be judge, jury, and executioner doesn't seem right. Existing regulations ought to cover this no?
ameliaquining|3 days ago
Specifically, the CFTC's rules say that it's illegal to "misappropriate confidential information in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence to the source of the information" by using that information to inform your commodity trades. The MrBeast editor likely did that, but the gubernatorial candidate didn't (he didn't promise anyone that he'd keep his candidacy secret), so if it were just up to government regulators and not platform rules, he'd be in the clear.
Matt Levine writes about this a lot (and is both funny and astonishingly good at explaining the workings of financial capitalism to laypeople); most recently he did so about this particular case: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-25/kal...
pavo-etc|3 days ago
mikestorrent|3 days ago
There seems to be no prosocial reason for this whatsoever.
PlunderBunny|3 days ago
0. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/587993/why-betting-on-to...
newAccount2025|3 days ago
itake|3 days ago
If you're worried an event may impact you materially (like cat 5 hurricane in Florida), then you can place a bet that the event will happen, thus hedging some risk if it does happen.
Insurance companies can participate in these products for the same reasons.
Or if you need to hedge against an event that isn't insurable. For example, if you are a high level democrat party leader and you will lose your job if a republican wins, you might take a bet to hedge your risk if your party looses the next cycle.
cedws|2 days ago
brg|3 days ago
arnvald|3 days ago
RobRivera|3 days ago
Analemma_|3 days ago
The reality has been rather different. It’s just another form of gambling that’s wrecking people’s lives, and it's not obvious to me that they’re even very good at forecasting, which might help make up for it (the absurdly overpriced markets re: “is LK-99 a room-temperature superconductor” were one example). It was an interesting hypothesis but a failed experiment: shut it down and move on.
calvinmorrison|3 days ago
Every gas station in this traditional blue law state has beer and slot machines now!
Bring back Joe Camel!!
ameliaquining|3 days ago
I agree that it's disappointing that so much of it has ended up being sports betting, and would be in favor of targeted regulations to deemphasize that in favor of more socially useful topics.
bradgranath|3 days ago
Lol.
4 Stars. Go home and tell your mother you're brilliant.
blobbers|3 days ago
By volume these markets only exist because of sports.