[sigmoid10]

GPT-4 came out 3 years ago and you can run comparable models for 1% of the cost nowadays. That is not 2x efficiency. That's two orders of magnitude in end-to-end compute efficiency.

[danielparsons]

you're looking at nearly the entire curve of the tech's development. that's like saying lightbulbs became 99% more energy efficient and therefore will become another 99% more energy efficient. but most techs follow an S curve.

[MengerSponge]

But S curves are boring and dont moon

[sigmoid10]

>you're looking at nearly the entire curve of the tech's development

That's a pretty strong statement that would need some data or at least a mathematical argument to back it up. Otherwise it's like saying in the 1980s that PCs with 640kB RAM have reached their pinnacle in terms of what users can expect in real life benefits and there's no reason to keep pushing the tech.

[robotresearcher]

> most techs follow an S curve.

All techs, eventually.

[swingboy]

How do we know how much it costs? Or is this just based off the token pricing?

[Xunjin]

That's the bingo of the question... The entire argument is token pricing, which can be subsidized.