[ks2048]

I'd say you're right, except that Trump is near death (maybe) and (more importantly) very unpopular.

[fullshark]

He's more polarizing than usual maybe with stronger approve/unapprove ratings but his net popularity is in line with most 2nd term presidents at this stage.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/trump-obama-...

[ks2048]

Yes, not historically unpopular, but enough that "I'm running for a third term" will be hard to pull-off.