[rootusrootus]

> The US is currently an autocracy/idiocracy. A staggeringly corrupt, busted nation.

We are in a bad place right now, that is for certain.

> Soon enough the midterms will be effectively cancelled.

That would be a pretty big leap from where we are. I think it is important to pay attention, and very important to vote, but there is not a particularly plausible route to cancelling any elections. But they can certainly make enough noise that a lot of people may become confused or scared to vote. So we need to remain laser focused on getting everybody to the polls. Like, this should be priority #1 for every citizen who wants to see democracy continue.

[bigtex88]

They won't outright cancel the elections but they will do things like send ICE to contested districts to harass law-abiding voters; pressure states to remove people from voter rolls and make it difficult if not impossible for them to re-register in time to be able to vote; and otherwise just scream fraud and cheating and stolen when they lose the House.

[baby_souffle]

Exactly this.

Belarus has elections, technically. Are they legitimate and free from coercion? Not really…

[pcj-github]

The midterms are not going to go according to anything like historical precedent. If allowed to function normally, Trump loses, and the whole stack of cards collapses. They know that, and will do literally anything and everything to prevent it. If allowed to get away with it, the US is never coming back.

Civil unrest very likely in November.

[rootusrootus]

I don't normally think people would accuse me of being an optimist, but I feel like Trump's influence has lower limits than many people think, and the opposition seems pretty strong. If there are any serious attempts at shenanigans during the midterm elections I think you are right that there would be widespread civil unrest. There are plenty of people willing to fight, especially when the stakes are as high as an actual election.

I think it is actually plausible that in the end, nothing too interesting happens and the elections go off as normal. Trump is a lame duck already, will not be on any future ballots, and I'm certain that GOP politicians know how badly they do on ballots that do not include his name. By the time November rolls around they will be in full CYA mode trying to ensure their own reelection and strategizing on how to mitigate the expected damage in 2028. At the rate Trump is going, we could see a super majority Dem Congress in 2028 and that would be a catastrophe for the GOP. I think they're going to start reining him in. His primary threats for 2028 will not be that convincing.