[TheAlchemist]

Regardless of how it ends, and it can go both ways, we're witnessing history here. This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia and China, mostly for military technology and oil. Hope it's not a start of WW3.

[dmos62]

> This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine war is 1M+ combat casualties deep and is nowhere near finished. You are out of touch.

[bawolff]

But russia-ukraine is also a much more contained war between 2 parties that will likely end in a stalemate.

The middle east is a much more tangled web of alliances and hatreds, i think the iranian regime falling would have much more harder to predict second order geopolitical effects.

[Etheryte]

Russia and Ukraine are now at war for the fifth year running, you're just used to the fact that there is ongoing war in Europe.

[dash2]

Depends how you count “big”. Russia-Ukraine has had about 1 million deaths, and has completely changed how Europe thinks about security- it’s hardly a sideshow. Then again, not much territory has changed hands and there has been no regime change yet.

[tromp]

> not much territory has changed hands

Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine, an area three times larger than the country I live in (the Netherlands).

[jiggawatts]

One million casualties is injured, missing, and dead… not just the dead.

[eps]

> 1 million deaths

Casulties, not deaths.

[xdennis]

> Russia-Ukraine has had about 1 million deaths

I wish... But estimates say between 230,000 and 468,500 dead orcs.

[concinds]

No it's not. This is an air strike campaign, no boots on the ground. It'll end in two weeks. There is no chance China or Russia get involved, like last time, so "WW3" is completely non-credible.

[AlecSchueler]

> ...no boots on the ground. It'll end in two weeks

Why do we never learn from history?

[RobotToaster]

Chinese state media is already reporting it's "unlikely to be contained" https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202602/28/WS69a2a669a310d686...

[pseingatl]

Bombing never wins wars, with one exception.

bombing of: -N.Vietnam -Germany -Serbia -Sudan -Tunisia -England

Exception:

-Japan

That is not to say bombing doesn't have its uses in war. The bombing of the oilfields of Ploesti in Romania severely damaged the German war machine. But it took Russian boots on the ground in Berlin to effect a German surrender.

[TheAlchemist]

While it's possible, it's unlikely. Iranian regime is in a corner - they have no choice anymore but to escalate, and escalate quickly.

[suddenlybananas]

There might be boots on the ground eventually given Trump's speech.

>The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war, but we’re doing this not for now. We’re doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission

Very foreboding.

[seydor]

Could be more of an intimidation tactic. The United States of Israel wouldnt go to a land war in Iran, that's unwinnable

[AlecSchueler]

This is about Iran, not Iraq.

[pjc50]

There's no land campaign. It's an isolated series of strikes for PR reasons and wishful thinking about Iran collapse.

[bambax]

What happens when Iran responds by firing missiles on Israel or on a US ship and inflicts major casualties on either targets, though?

[bawolff]

Otoh, what russia desperately needs in the short term is oil prices to go up, so there is probably a major silver lining for them.

[sekai]

> Otoh, what russia desperately needs in the short term is oil prices to go up, so there is probably a major silver lining for them.

And they will again appear weak and incapable, unable to help their allies

[dzhiurgis]

Iran’s oil is sanctioned hence not on public market. Does it really have much influence?

[bambax]

WW3 started with the invasion of Ukraine.

[dgxyz]

I don't think it's bigger than Russia-Ukraine - it's part of it. This is all about destabilising Iran's incumbent government, which is probably a good thing at the moment. It'll damage supply lines to Russia's Ukraine offensive, give the chance for Iranian citizens to rise up against Khamenei and the IRGC and break the command chain for their foreign proxy operations. Part of Dugan's work on geopolitics, which they seem to be following to the word (c'mon guys seriously?) suggests that Moscow and Tehran should be allied which they are behind the scenes.

As for the nuclear threat, literally Iran said it was going to destroy Israel to the point it had a massive countdown clock in Tehran until Israel blew it up, so meh. If I was on the receiving end of that threat I'd make it a policy to respond to it, escalation or not. I make no claims of the accuracy of the threats past IAEA being unable to verify they aren't enriching stuff.

Doubt it'll escalate into WW3. The only other powers involved are Russia, who are totally hands tied with Ukraine if they like it or not and China is only interested keeping what's left in its sphere of influence later through their outreach initiatives. I suspect most Middle Eastern countries will be quite happy about this conflict as they have persistent problems with Iran as well from the Houthis, Hezbollah and tens of other factions. They won't want to say anything though in case their own citizens turn on them.

The cringeworthy thing is how the US gov are communicating this and that does the operation a lot of damage. It's really quite terrible. Sounds like it was written by a bunch of 9 year olds after too many sugary drinks. Urgh.

[voidfunc]

> The cringeworthy thing is how the US gov are communicating this and that does the operation a lot of damage. It's really quite terrible. Sounds like it was written by a bunch of 9 year olds after too many sugary drinks. Urgh.

Thats because its not written for you and I. Its written for people who struggle to communicate at an adult level, which is a shockingly large portion of the US.

[Havoc]

I doubt either of them is keen to enter the fray here. Russia is making shaheeds at home now anyway

[throwaway3060]

As big as this is, the Russia-Ukraine war pretty much marked the end of the post-WW2 era and redefined global relations between the powers. In that sense, this is yet another major shift within this new era. But also, the series of events that led to this point does connect to the Russia-Ukraine war, and maybe doesn't happen without it.

[mantas]

More like this is a small piece of the puzzle in Russian-Ukraine war. Iran plays quite a big role in supplying Russians. If Iran is taken out, power balance in that war may change too.

[spwa4]

Uh, Iran is involved in the Ukraine war, and this even goes so far that Ukraine has attacked Iranian shipping in the Caspian sea.

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1154545/Ukraine-strikes-cargosh...

(not just once)

[waihtis]

Putin said it himself, there are over 2 million russians in Israel - they will not participate

[null_deref]

Russian Speakers* a lot of them are from previous Soviet republics like Georgia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Ukraine

[quotz]

thats definitely not the reason they wont participate. Its just a public excuse

[kdheiwns]

I have to wonder how many are in governmental roles and realized they can steer the US into conflicts and ruining itself without any of those involved identifying as Russian. It's the cleanest backdoor for espionage that there ever was.