[adverbly]

Well hopefully this is short, minimally lethal, and leads to regime change for all those involved.

[Zealotux]

>leads to regime change for all those involved

Including for the U.S. and Israel?

[Revanche1367]

Pretty sure he chose his words carefully.

[scoofy]

It is difficult to instigate regime change for democratically elected governments.

Iran has an unelected supreme leader.

Israel has a large portion of its population completely disenfranchised.

The US has a generally democratically elected government.

If one of these governments is going to fall during military instabilities, it would most likely be Iran. The US will have significant regime change in November if polling holds.

[nyc_data_geek1]

He said what he said.

[hedayet]

don't know about Israel, but for the USA, it means "midterm is coming"

[FuckButtons]

Did he stutter?

[michaelteter]

One can only dream.

[methyl]

It’s possible

[gambiting]

We can only hope.

[reliabilityguy]

I did not see the US butchering 30k protesters in 2 days.

And no, stop your American exceptionalism, ICE is not the same.

[Aeolun]

> minimally lethal

The US and Israel are involved. The only way it’s going to turn out is maximally lethal to all those not involved at all.

See… basically any military operation participated in by those nations in recent history.

We got a couple strikes and already managed to hit an elementary school. Nothing I’ve seen in Gaza or Iraq leads me to believe this will be any different.

[throw102225]

See Israel’s take down of Hezbollah.

[jari_mustonen]

There is nothing ideal about that outcome. The "regime change" people talk about is intended to look like what happened in Libya: A failed state that falls in anarchy.

[reliabilityguy]

> look like what happened in Libya: A failed state that falls in anarchy.

This comment just shows that you have no idea what Iran is, and how it differs from Libya.

Libya is a loose conglomerate of tribes. Iran majorly Persian that see themselves as one nation. Completely different dynamics.

[shevy-java]

Iraq? Afghanistan? Vietnam?

I don't think any of these were short.

[thomassmith65]

Desert Storm was short. The second Iraq War, the stupid one, was not.

[markus_zhang]

You can’t be short, minimal lethal AND regime change. Gotta be pretty bloody to make that happen.

[tim333]

Unless like Venezuela. Or like 1953 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...

[Bender]

Well hopefully this is short, minimally lethal, and leads to regime change for all those involved.

That would be ideal but unfortunately not likely. Nobody will like this comment but US ships are sitting ducks. They have minimal ammo per the pentagon and no oilers. No oilers and low ammo means no prolonged conflict. Only two of the ships are nuclear powered not counting submarines. Most of Iran's military and weapons are deep underground in a massive series of underground cities and tunnels. The US would require boots on the ground if they manage to breach the tunnel openings under the mountains. Should that fail the only viable targets are civilians and that won't win favor with anyone or accomplish anything.

Iranian military could just wait it out if they wanted and then smoke Israel with supersonic missiles when the US leaves. Then we find out if Israel does have the nukes for the Samson option and that would result in the destruction of Israel. Iran's military could survive a nuclear strike but would have to clean up the fallout and I am not sure they could. Anyone not underground would likely get Acute Radiation Sickness and Cancer.

On a positive note if the US can manage to get into the tunnels and send in enough munitions to start detonating the missile stockpile a chain reaction could crack all the concrete and collapse the tunnels. Satellite could detect which tunnel they try to evac from. They have less than 5 days to accomplish the chain reaction assuming this is the plan. From the videos I have seen the missiles are literally lined up like a double-strand fuse.

[tim333]

The US military has seldom had problems with the blowing up the enemy bit. It's providing peace and stability after that happens where they tend to run into problems.

[Bender]

[Update]: It seems my dear leader is hitting all the cities... [1] I am not OK with this. Save the handful of leaders and scientists for ground recon instead of whacking all the citizens. Take out the missiles first. Most of the military and religious leaders are under ground. Take out those underground complexes and Iran is yours.

[1] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-attac...

[cosmicgadget]

I can't imagine a world where the US military only has the logistics for a five day offensive.

[thisislife2]

Yeah, the possibility of a regime collapse / change due to this military action is unlikely. The military goal seems to be to destroy Iran's military-industrial complexes to hamper its missile production. Note however that while Iran has potent missile capability, Iran's underground complexes where it is stored presents its own problems - in the absence of adequate air defence and an Air Force, its enemies can just bomb the openings of these underground complexes, making it very, very difficult for the Iranians to use its missile arsenals from there. (This is what Israel did the last time). As for the scenario you outlined, I highly doubt the US would be willing to send boots to the ground to blow up their missiles manually - urban warfare takes a heavy toll and I doubt if the Trump administration can withstand the criticism if body bags start coming home. Even the MAGA crowd has been unexceptionally hostile to Trump's attack on Israel.

[scrollop]

What yt channel?

[weatherlite]

I know you won't believe me here but dude you are absolutely full of shit

[sschueller]

There is no such thing but I guess the US still has not learned this after so many conflicts.

[steve-atx-7600]

Regime change is not the same thing as a "forever war". I don't think you read the post that you replied to.

[plaidfuji]

> Minimally lethal

“Israel strikes two schools in Iran, killing more than 80 people”

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/2/28/israel-strikes-...

Welp, better luck next time

[shykes]

This reminds me of the Al-Ahli hospital incident in Gaza, when a mysterious explosion at a hospital was immediately blamed on an Iraeli strike - first by Hamas, then by the international press. A precise death toll was immediately available: 500 killed. Israel urged caution as they investigated, but were ignored.

Eventually, it was established that 1) the casualty number had been a fabrication, 2) the explosion was in the parking lot, 3) it was NOT caused by an Israeli strike, but by a Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket that had fell short.

Soon the press was forced to issue corrections - New York Times [1] , Le Monde [2], BBC [3]...

This incident looks VERY similar. Which is not surprising, since Hamas was trained in information warfare by the IRGC. Note that Al Jazeera (the media arm of Qatar, who funds Hamas and hosts their leaders in Doha) is enthusiastically amplifying this story with no apparent effort to cross-examine Iran's official source.

I predict that this story will turn out to be fabricated as well.

UPDATE: preliminary reports from the OSINT community seem to indicate that the story was indeed a fabrication... https://x.com/tarikh_eran/status/2027784301840846939

[1] https://www.poynter.org/commentary/2023/the-new-york-times-e...

[2] https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2023/10/24/a-no...

[3] https://deadline.com/2023/11/bbcs-international-editor-grill...

[Braxton1980]

Based on previous American wars in the middle east wouldn't you say that's unlikely?

[franktankbank]

Won't there be boots on the ground? We already bombed their facilities and at the time they said best that bombs can do is fuck up the entrance to these tunnels.

[rambojohnson]

u sweet summer child.