[7777777phil]

77 suspicious positions across 60 wallets, 13 brand-new accounts appearing 40 hours before the browser launch. First confirmed case of a major tech company firing over prediction market trades.

I wrote about why prediction markets have a structural insider trading problem that nobody's solved yet: https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of...

[raincole]

It's interesting that the both replies under this comment are saying exact same thing, with the exact same term ("raison d'etre"... how often do you hear two random people think of this phrase at the same time?).

It might be nothing, but it'd be funny if karma farming bots are doing some 'reply frontrunning' over the internet.

[kennyadam]

I don’t consider “raison d'etre" a suspicious phrase. It’s not something people use multiple times a day, but I’d consider it common enough that when I hear someone say it, or in this case I suppose type it, that I would give it a second thought.

[Rexxar]

I don't think that two 13 and 14 years old accounts with not that many comment per week are bots.

[ohyoutravel]

Archived version: https://archive.ph/XWrTA

[gtowey]

Insider trading is the raison d'etre of these products.

[holmesworcester]

Isn't insider trading on a prediction market only wrong to the extent the insider is violating some duty of secrecy to the company?

And isn't that just between them and their company in a case-by-case sense?

If there was some valuable-to-the-public information that the company did not care about keeping private but just hadn't bothered to make public, for whatever reason, and an insider traded on it on a prediction market, that would only benefit the public's interest in information and would not violate any duty to the company. It'd be a pure win for everyone.

It seems unfair to other traders, the way it would be in the stock market, but in prediction markets (unlike the stock market) all participants are explicitly taking on the risk that somebody else might have better access to information than they do. So it's not subverting the system in the way we have decided it does in stock markets.

A lot of commenters are getting the wrong take here by looking at this like it's a stock market where there is some society-level interest in giving participants protection from having less information than insiders. It's just a different thing.

[datsci_est_2015]

Could also make a case for incentivizing destructive actions by insiders as well. You’re saying I could sabotage my project and make a quick buck?

[Hamuko]

Yeah, Polymarket is explicitly advertising this.

>Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. Traders aggregate news, polls, and expert opinions, making informed trades. Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join.

>If you’re an expert on a certain topic, Polymarket is your opportunity to profit from trading based on your knowledge, while improving the market’s accuracy.

You know what's a great knowledgeable participant? An insider.

[ekjhgkejhgk]

Excuse me it's called price discovery.

[throwaway5752]

Prediction markets exist to bypass gambling restrictions and monetize insider trading. It isn't a problem, it is their raison d'etre.

[juleiie]

Yeah but someone has to give the money to the insider traders.

Betting and insider gambling wouldn’t work if people were educated and just didn’t gamble and so never used these platforms in the first place.

It’s an old question of whether government is responsible to protect people from themselves or should we give everyone freedom to go bankrupt in this specific way if they so desire.

I don’t know if there is a healthy way to gamble really. With drugs and substances at least there is some continuous spectrum but you either gamble your money or not.

[somenameforme]

Would you not say that somebody could equally cynically describe options trading in this way?

Prediction markets are very valuable because they provide information on issues that's generally much more accurate than alternative sources, such as polls. For instance Polymarket predicted 94% of the results for the 2024 election a month out, including the presidential. It can also provide more information than the news. For instance the chances of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31st just skyrocketed up to 78%. That tells me far more than the various news sites minute by minute coverage.

[gtowey]

Jinx!

[ThePowerOfDirge]

Gambling = investing. Buying stocks is also gambling. Share buybacks, dividends, fancy words for forking money from workers to some joe schmoe that bought a lottery ticket, i.e., a stock.