[tossaway0]

I’m probably overlooking something, but if you have insider info, you just bet on that info with certainty. Why would you need to create a different outcome to bet on it?

If I know my company is going to do something on March 16th, I can bet against it happening until that day, and then bet big it will happen that day. I don’t need to influence the company to change what it’s going to do to make money on it.

[agons]

The problem comes when there are lucrative odds for some unlikely scenario, which you can influence into realisation, and that outcome might be counter to the company's goals (i.e. sabotage)